NIFTY-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's Blog

The first four sessions of the past week were a kind of consolidation with every uptick getting sold. Friday’s move could have surprised many. Decisive break above 17450 triggered the sharp move. Though the Index made a lower low, there appears a gradual climate change and the bulls are returning back.

A few observations from the weekly charts are:
Weekly charts suggest that

• The index moved in a range of 389 points viz. between 17255 and 17644
  The oscillators of different time frames are showing mixed signals
  New monthly candle opens with a positive note
  
  

Expected scenarios for the ensuing week


*The close near the highs of the week gives hope for a decent pull back.
The Mid BB at 17250 held for now and the likely target for this could be 17740 and possibly 17920
index may find supports at 17450, 17350, 17250 and the index could face resistances at, 17710, 17880 and 17920
Expected to remain in the range of 17450-17910 and any close outside the range requires re-assessment of risk

Additional interesting observations


*The region between 17540 and 17770 is a slippery turf and known for sharp moves on either side,
The Index may find stiff resistance at 17910
There had been multiple Gaps created during the up move
17826-17755 Likely to be attempted during the week
17320-17430 Filled
16650-16770(Far away for now)
16360-16560 (These are risk zones for sharp moves)

*
Final Note

*Like we have seen bearish candles consecutively for three months between Jan to Mar20(pandemic driven penetrating the lower BB), Apr 22 to June 22 we are witnessing similar move from Dec22 to Feb23 taking the index closer to the Mid BB
The index has started a new trend after each of these occasions. To be optimistic we may see the Index attempt at least 18K if not post another ATH
The daily line charts show a double bottom formation which has the potential to test 18030
As noted in the previous Blog, it is observed from the daily charts that the Index is moving in a downward sloping channel with base support at 17270 and top at 17930. Till either of this is breached we may see a consolidation
FIIs have turned net moderate sellers and the DIIs also moderate buyers
Most likely scenario could be a range of 17450-17920
We need to see a daily close above 17920 for further gains towards 18K
The below piece of information is being highlighted in our previous blogs starting Dec 22. We intend to keep this tail piece even at the cost of repetition for the sake of quick reference
If we take the Fib retracements so far the correction has been 1283 points. The Annual gain has been 3704 points from 15183 to 18887. One third correction would fall at 17666 and a 50% correction would mean 17035.
#Stay Safe

Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.