NIFTY-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's Blog

The past week saw a Yo-Yo move between 16930 & 17200. The Global risk perception continuing to show on and off glimpse of hope only to be countered by another wave of turmoil. For now, 16930 seem to provide some support while the most crucial support is at 16740-60 range.

A few observations from the weekly charts are:
Weekly charts suggest that

• The index moved in a range of 279 points viz. between 17207 and 16928
  The oscillators of different time frames are showing mixed signals
  Global Risk perception has tilted towards highly negative sentiments similar to the one seen around the Ukraine-Russia conflict
  Expected scenarios for the ensuing week
  Index may find supports at 17935,16870,16740 and the index could struggle penetrating the resistances at multiple levels viz. 17060, 17140, 17210, 17360
  Expected to remain in the range of 16850-17360 and any close outside the range requires re-assessment of risk
  
  

Additional interesting observations


*While the overall sentiments continue to be negative, some moves seem to be similar in the past
Week of 12 Dec22 to Week of 19 Dec22-18696-17779- 917 Following week 300+
Week of 16 Jan23 to Week of 23 Jan23- 18183-17493- 690 Following week 250+
Week of 06 Mar23 to Week of 13 Mar23- 17799-16850- 949 Following week ???
The Index may find stiff resistance at 17270 & 17360
There had been multiple Gaps created during the up move (These are risk zones for sharp moves)
16650-16770
16360-16560

Final Note

*The Index is moving in a downward sloping channel with base support at 16740 and top at 17800
Most likely scenario could be a range of 16740-17440
We need to see a daily close above 17210 for further gains
The below piece of information is being highlighted in our previous blogs starting Dec 22. We intend to keep this tail piece even at the cost of repetition for the sake of quick reference
If we take the Fib retracements so far the correction has been 1283 points. The Annual gain has been 3704 points from 15183 to 18887. One third correction would fall at 17666 and a 50% correction would mean 17035.
We have tested one notch below this 50%
The final hope remains at 17740
It is to be noted that the monthly charts paint a very gloomy picture as most indices are below the Mid BB
Capital protection weighs higher compared to gains
With monthly expiry due we may see choppy moves
16930 seem to make a tweezer bottom and 17200 a strong resistance
The direction and target would be clearer only on breach of this range
Most worrying part is that the formation in Daily is a kind of Inv Flag and on the line chart H&S under progress
This can be negated only through a conversion of the formation as double bottom and a close beyond 17240 else there are chances that we test 16400 on break of 16740. Let us only hope that there is some relief

Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.