26th Oct ’23 - Nifty hits the jackpot of 18880 - PostMortem
Nifty Weekly Expiry Analysis
Nifty fell a whopping 765pts ~ 3.90% between the last expiry and today. Most importantly it has retraced all its gains from 28th June to close below 18880. We will cover why that is relevant below, but this fall of 4% signals a reversal in trend. Even though VIX is still below 12%, it is showing a tendency to spike, reassuring the bearish sentiment.
Nifty Today’s Analysis
Recap from yesterday: “On the daily timeframe, the next possible candle that should appear should have its low touching the 18880 level (best case). If Nifty manages to pull this out, it will be an awesome November and December month getting lined up for the Bears. Since Nifty went up from 18880 to 19310 as 3 white soldiers, the return should be nothing less than 3 black crows.”
Nifty50 was quite benevolent today, we set a target of 18880 and Nifty hit that by 10.55. That’s a first - 99 out of 100 days the strategy we set for days like these ends up worthless. A day like today will ensure that 1 day is good enough for the options to go deep in the money.
We had a gap down open of -86pts ~ 0.45% and from there we fell another 193pts ~ 1.02%. The final close was at 18857. The chart may not paint the severity of the move since its on a logarithmic scale - but trust me, the pain was much more. Except for AXIS, ITC and HCLTECH - the cuts were pretty steep for everything else.
On the 1hr chart, the intensity of the first candle is quite obvious. We took out 211 ~1.11% in the first hour itself. The remainder of the day was more or less sideways with a slight bearish intent.
On the daily TF, notice the orange color encircled regions. You can quickly relate what 3 white soldiers and 3 black crows are. Today’s closing ensures we retouched the new ATH set on 01 Dec 2022 & 19 Jun 2023. Further price action should be interesting as the global macros keep on deteriorating. For tomorrow, I wish to maintain my bearish stance and expect Nifty to trade between 18880 and 18762. If we break 18762, my next target would be 18597.
Nifty fell a whopping 765pts ~ 3.90% between the last expiry and today. Most importantly it has retraced all its gains from 28th June to close below 18880. We will cover why that is relevant below, but this fall of 4% signals a reversal in trend. Even though VIX is still below 12%, it is showing a tendency to spike, reassuring the bearish sentiment.
Nifty Today’s Analysis
Recap from yesterday: “On the daily timeframe, the next possible candle that should appear should have its low touching the 18880 level (best case). If Nifty manages to pull this out, it will be an awesome November and December month getting lined up for the Bears. Since Nifty went up from 18880 to 19310 as 3 white soldiers, the return should be nothing less than 3 black crows.”
Nifty50 was quite benevolent today, we set a target of 18880 and Nifty hit that by 10.55. That’s a first - 99 out of 100 days the strategy we set for days like these ends up worthless. A day like today will ensure that 1 day is good enough for the options to go deep in the money.
We had a gap down open of -86pts ~ 0.45% and from there we fell another 193pts ~ 1.02%. The final close was at 18857. The chart may not paint the severity of the move since its on a logarithmic scale - but trust me, the pain was much more. Except for AXIS, ITC and HCLTECH - the cuts were pretty steep for everything else.
On the 1hr chart, the intensity of the first candle is quite obvious. We took out 211 ~1.11% in the first hour itself. The remainder of the day was more or less sideways with a slight bearish intent.
On the daily TF, notice the orange color encircled regions. You can quickly relate what 3 white soldiers and 3 black crows are. Today’s closing ensures we retouched the new ATH set on 01 Dec 2022 & 19 Jun 2023. Further price action should be interesting as the global macros keep on deteriorating. For tomorrow, I wish to maintain my bearish stance and expect Nifty to trade between 18880 and 18762. If we break 18762, my next target would be 18597.
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