Ida and the US Hurricane Season, Cryptocurrencies & Natural Gas

31 de ago. de 2021

Hurricane Ida hit the US coast. As a result, New Orleans experienced an almost complete loss of electricity, Mississippi waters reversed, gasoline prices in the United States jumped due to the suspension of the main refineries, in general, an apocalypse as it is. The funny thing is that this +/- happens every year, because it's hurricane season (from June to November in the Atlantic it happens on an annual basis), but every time everyone did not expect this and is shocked by what is happening.

However, the end of the world is once again canceled. The hurricane died down. Oil production has been restored. It was restored, by the way, in Mexico after the fire on the Pemex oil platform last week. OPEC + should also remind markets this week that from September it is worth expecting an increase in production by another 400K b / d. And the number of active oil installations in the United States has been growing for the 13th month in a row, doubling over the past year. We are all for this: selling oil at current prices is not such a gamble from the point of view of fundamental analysis.

A potentially even more interesting short position is emerging in the gas market. It repeats the story of three years ago, when gas prices almost reached $ 5, and then collapsed to $ 1.5. Yes, the set of factors in favor of gas growth here and now is impressive: on the demand side - the recovery of the world economy, multiplied by the panic shortage of gas in Europe (storage facilities are half-empty and cannot be filled in any way, and winter is close), and on the supply side - hurricanes, fires at the facilities of Pemex, Gazprom. But there is no feeling that these factors are permanent - rather, on the contrary, very temporary, and whether without them gas prices will be able to stay at the top is another question. In general, in the medium term, we see a very promising deal - the sale of natural gas.

Meanwhile, China continues to deflate the bubble in its stock market with regulatory methods. This time, the computer games industry was the target of the attack. China has released draft rules with new hard time limits for minors.

In addition, China, through the mouth of the Central Bank of China, once again reminded the world that cryptocurrencies "are not legal tender and have no real value." Billionaire John Paulson said this in a recent interview, who said that cryptocurrencies are a bubble and used a very capacious phrase to describe it: "limited supply of nothing".

For those who share this point of view, but are afraid to sell crypto directly due to increased volatility, we give a list of companies that have invested billions of dollars in crypto: Microstrategy, Tesla, Galaxy Digitalm Voyager Digital, Square, Mrathon Digital, Coinbase, Mercado Libre. The collapse of a bubble in the cryptocurrency market is guaranteed to hurt these companies, and if the stock market bubble bursts, then nothing of them may remain at all.