Last week Friday saw the first real test to see if the bulls were serious at posing any kind threat towards making a run towards the high side.
That call was answered at 8:59 am when the market made it's low fueled by that massive drop fueled by the NFP report.
The H1 moved from a LL (which actually formed above the last LOW) directly to a HIGH, and then it came back to make a HL and then back to complete the sequence to a HH.
This move completed all the highs with the exception of the weekly timeframe.
Every single timeframe has made some sort of high with the exception of the weekly...In order for the market to sell every timeframe has to be at a high.
So with that being said, from now on, every sell that will be taken will be a HL until the HH's have pushed the price to register some sort of high on the weekly timeframe.
So what I am looking for right now is that biggest timeframe to register a Low which will translate to the next timeframe up making a HL...that will be my entry and I will keep buying until the high is registered on the weekly timeframe.
Right now, I continue to be patient and wait for my setup.
I am still bullish, however I am waiting for my HIGH/HL combination in order to take my next buy.
Currently...I am tracking the largest HL being made right now on the M15...
The reason why I see this as valid:
1. M15 HL = M5 is at a segmented LOW (a low that makes a series of HL and LH's) 2. Price came back to the 61% (m15 & M30 Low to High Fibs) line and made and bounced. 3. trading toward the current trend (towards the weekly high) 4. Market is still making HL's 5. Earlier sell seemed to be only a retest.
no setup = No trade #auberstrategy #aubersystem #whywewait #patience
Trade ativo
As mentioned in my earlier "minds" post last night, I took a buy based on the fact that the market is clearly showing right now that it is an uptrend.
1. The H1 is continuing to make HL's HH's 2. The weekly timeframe has yet to register some sort of high that it needs in order for all the timeframes to be synchronized before the real sell takes place.
Also since yesterday's retracement bearish run, price has only managed to produce a HL on the M15 and now trying to create a technical HL on the M30.
If this is successful it will still be a HL registered for the H1.
The lowest point so far since market open last evening has been 15149.45 which sits right above the 50% M30 LOW - HIGH fibs.
Even if the price should make a run back to claim the 78% retracement, that should still register as a HL on the H1 which is till in keeping with the trend of HL/HH on the H1.
Right now I am still bullish and I will continue to monitor the highs that will be currently formed by the M15 and M30.
However if the structure is upheld by the H1 my bias will continue to be bullish.
With the M30 completing a segmented LOW and H1 a HL, I have redrawn my fibs to reflect the last LL to High point on the H1 and further observation revealed that the price broke -0.27% and hit our TP of 15257.65.
The retracement now registers a test on the -0.27% line for the H1 and is still showing signs of a continuation with the current HL/HH trend as it makes its way towards fulfilling the type of high needed on the weekly before any meaningful sells can continue.
Before subscribing to the notion that the market is in a downtrend...
Ask yourself the following questions:
1. If i took a buy on Wednesday September 27 at the lowest point would I still be in profit today?
2. If i took a sell at the highest point on Wednesday September 27, would I still be in profit today?
If one of those answers is yes, then that is the current trend of the market.
The market continues to make HL's and HH's as it makes it way up towards making some sort of high on the weekly timeframe.
There were two opportunities on the H1 for entries and I was able to take both of them using the strategy.
Here are the signs to look for:
1. when the market is in an uptrend working towards the high on the bigger timeframe you want to identify the biggest timeframe that registers a low.
2. check to see if the low was formed by breaking a previous HL.
3. Once you have confirmed this, then go to the next timeframe up and ensure that it is at a HL.
4. Check the next timeframe up to see if there are any other HL's formed.
5. If there are none, then the buy move is valid and you can enter the trade.
The idea behind this is that the market is making HL/HH's and so you can trade towards the next HH from the timeframe that made the HL.
Today you will notice that the H1 fibs only retraced back the the -0.27% on the fibs. You could use the M30 fibs to get proper retracement levels, however since you are picking up the technical HL's (a low on the lower timeframe that is formed by breaking a previous HL) then that is your entry signal.
Remember the trend is valid until all the larger timeframes have complete their required moves.
The move is still going on and as such I am holding to my TP 15640.87.
As always trade what you see and be mindful of your risk.
I will not be telling you when to enter the trade as you will have to make that call on your own.
Look at the following images for the DXY (dollar index) starting with the monthly:
If the DXY falls...it means the US$ is getting weaker...therefore more money is available to spend on purchases and so indices like the NAS100 will rise.
If I am taking HL/HH's and price is at an overbought, I have to take my profit, sit and wait for another low to form so that I can reenter the trade.
That is exactly what I am doing right now.
I will allow the upcoming volatility to set me up for the next big move.
see you around.
#auberstrategy #whywewait #patience
Trade ativo
Today we closed out our trade from last night in profit after manually taking out our trade after the high was made at 6:00 am.
Our first entry was 15194.45 and we closed at 15309.15 Our second entry was 15293.55 and we closed at 153.15
After we exited we patiently waited for another setup to come after all the volatility calmed down.
We missed another buy opportunity as we were being overly cautious, however we waited for the perfect setup that came later in the afternoon around 2:00 pm today.
The premise for these entries as I have been saying all week is that we are trading the current trend of the market to be able to complete the type of high required on the weekly timeframe.
Our entry for the current ongoing trade is 15157.85 with an expected TP of 15640.87
As usual, please exercise patience and wait on your setups...do not chase the price...just wait.
When the DXY is low that means the US$ is low...What that means is that because the value is low, there is more money available for purchases.
The NAS100 goes higher when the DXY goes down.
Right now the DXY is sitting at a High.
The NAS100 is coming from a LOW.
The verdict:
1. you cannot buy from a HIGH
2. You cannot sell from a LOW.
NAS100 has to buy and the DXY has to sell
#auberout
Trade ativo
There is a similarity that I am seeing between yesterday and today at this 6:00 am hour.
Yesterday price was at a high and today price is at a low.
Why is that important?
1. Price cannot buy from a high...and so yesterday it sold to a HL at 8:30
2. Price cannot sell from a Low...so just wait for the buy whenever it comes.
3. Exercising patience to wait for the move.
Trade fechado manualmente
Friday was the day I manually closed this trade as I missed my exit on the H1 LH and I did not pay close attention to the signal it gave that I was going for the sell.
That was purely my fault and none of the strategy...
Human error.
I will be posting a video breakdown on what I missed so we can all learn and do better this upcoming week.
check out my youtube link over the weekend for the review video and the analysis for the upcoming week.
As informações e publicações não devem ser e não constituem conselhos ou recomendações financeiras, de investimento, de negociação ou de qualquer outro tipo, fornecidas ou endossadas pela TradingView. Leia mais em Termos de uso.
As informações e publicações não devem ser e não constituem conselhos ou recomendações financeiras, de investimento, de negociação ou de qualquer outro tipo, fornecidas ou endossadas pela TradingView. Leia mais em Termos de uso.