2024-06-13 - a daily price action after hour update - gold
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
gold
comment: This does look a lot more like a trading range than a market who want’s to have it’s third leg down. 2300 continues to be big support and until that is clearly broken, it’s a buy at that price. For the pull-back to stay below 2360 is bearish. So market has arguments on both sides and that is why we can expect more sideways price action until that range is clearly broken.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 2300 - 2360
bull case: The longer they can keep it above 2300, the more neutral the market becomes and the odds for a breakout to either side become 50/50. Market is in balance here, so no good arguments for higher or lower prices. The current bear channel is reasonable and maybe the bulls are favored down here to trade it back to around 2330 tomorrow.
Invalidation is below 2300.
bear case: Need a break below 2300. No better arguments for their case either.
Invalidation is above 2360.
short term: Completely neutral inside given range.
medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2450. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is dumb and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so DON’T.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Yeah just a weird day. Expanding triangle first and then another big sell against the 1h 20ema.
gold
comment: This does look a lot more like a trading range than a market who want’s to have it’s third leg down. 2300 continues to be big support and until that is clearly broken, it’s a buy at that price. For the pull-back to stay below 2360 is bearish. So market has arguments on both sides and that is why we can expect more sideways price action until that range is clearly broken.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 2300 - 2360
bull case: The longer they can keep it above 2300, the more neutral the market becomes and the odds for a breakout to either side become 50/50. Market is in balance here, so no good arguments for higher or lower prices. The current bear channel is reasonable and maybe the bulls are favored down here to trade it back to around 2330 tomorrow.
Invalidation is below 2300.
bear case: Need a break below 2300. No better arguments for their case either.
Invalidation is above 2360.
short term: Completely neutral inside given range.
medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2450. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is dumb and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so DON’T.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Yeah just a weird day. Expanding triangle first and then another big sell against the 1h 20ema.
