Nasdaq Composite Hyperbolic Growth: 28000 in 2024

28 de ago. de 2020

Look at this boi, Nasdaq Composite has gone up almost 80% since testing the 50-month moving average in March 2020. This demonstrates how strongly bullish the market fundamentals are, remember Fed confirmed on yesterday 27 Aug 2020 that they will tolerate higher than usual inflation, just to keep the interest rate close to zero! Basically Fed and Donald Trump (he doubtlessly will be reelected) will continue to smash cheap and free money into the American stock market, and with interest rate so low, Americans really have nothing else legitimate enough to invest.



Looking at Nasdaq Composite's performance from 1996 to 2000, the 80% jump since Mar 2020 seems weirdly reminiscent. It confirms that IXIC is going through a similarly Hyperbolic trajectory, which means IXIC will go up faster and faster, corrections will be smaller and quicker to recover, until the 'singularity point' like October 1998 where IXIC just refuses to go down, always up and up, until it sucks most potential investors dry of cash.



Remembering the long term bullish nature of IXIC, the day chart indicates some correction is due soon. The huge bullish run since 23 March 2020 is obviously highly impulsive, so Elliott Wave theory tells us it will very likely reverse around the 1.618 extension of the 19 Feb to 23 Mar correction. Since the 1980s, IXIC has often corrected 15-25% after going up 70-80%.


Nasdaq Composite went up 76.44% from 5 Dec 1994 to 20 May 1996, then it dropped 19.43% in 56 days. I think IXIC will retest the 10000 support again within 2 months, possibly caused by USA election or US-China trade uncertainties. The Christmas season is usually bullish, so we will see 12000 and probably higher again in January 2021.

13 de set. de 2020

Nota

Weekly chart looks bearish in the short term, will probably test the 20-week moving average at 10200, next support is 9800 the old top.

26 de set. de 2020

Trade ativo

Time to buy, S&P 500 is close to 100-day moving average, IXIC almost dropped to 20-week moving average. September, the traditionally most bearish month is all but finished, November, December, January are super bullish months in a bullish year, so just sit back and watch your money grow! IXIC might pull back a little around 12300, close to the all-time-high.