IOTA Long Position: Macro Wave 2 Complete?
Atualizado
From a macro perspective, it seems IOTA has completed its second primary wave (circled number 2), hitting a bottom at the 1$ mark. We've been looking for potential primary trend reversals since the 1.4$ low in February, and the recent intermediate impulse wave taking us to 2.6$ (the highest high since February) should qualify as such.
Assuming I can reflect the chart's primary behavior onto its intermediate fractal, it is reasonably safe to say that IOTA will bottom out between 1.25$-1$ (I would ladder buys here). Notably, 1$ is a very strong support emphasized in both August 2017 and February 2018. The trend based fib extension (blue line 1.618) then takes us to approximately 3.8$ from there.
Note however that if we go below 1$, this will signal a failed impulse overall, which will require a revised analysis, and potential for more downturn in this market, taking us to the next main supports at 0.35$.
This is my first published analysis, and I don't consider myself very experienced so I could be wrong on many interpretations. Feel free to correct me if that's the case.
This isn't financial advice, just my opinion :)
Nota
It seems we are trotting further towards my target, with some bullish signs along the way, particularly on the RSI (approaching 30) and price action (bearish with less strength). See image for more detailed comments.
I would like to note something I neglected to mention above. My target of 1.25-1$ comes from the 0.786 Fib support at 1.25$, and the potential 26% downside from there (down to 1$) as reflected from the primary fractal, and visible in the original image.
Trade ativo
Wow! So IOTA just had a strong bounce at 1.3477 (the candle has almost no bottom wick). I sensed some lack of strength in the bears but didn't expect a breakout so soon!
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It was nice to be right about the bullish RSI falling wedge though, it looks like I'm learning something :)
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twitter.com/CryptoChoe/status/968890517793726464 Finally, and in retrospect, according to this table by CryptoChoe, it looks like the highest probably landing zone for a wave two retracement is between the 0.618 and the 0.786 (40% probability), which is exactly where we bounced! Definitely a lesson learned there.
On my future analyses, I will also try to include volume as I am aware of its importance, I just need to get better at gauging its significance first!
Nota
For those day trading, you could sell now for a low re-buy between the 0.618 and 0.786 Fib.
Everyone else, the MACD is getting closer to crossing, looking good!
Nota
Hope you caught this one day traders, down 8% from the top so far.
Swing traders, we can use this information to confirm an intermediate wave 1 for our primary wave 3. Daily chart indicators still look good. If this 2-3 hour price action doesn't break below the 1.3$ entry point, then we can confirm that we are in an uptrend.
Otherwise.. I'll have to rechart, and we could see some more downside as I said earlier.
Nota
Short term update: It seems intra-day dynamics are behaving differently from what I expected. We had a solid bounce on the 0.5 Fib despite somewhat Bearish low-timeframe MACD crosses. I'll need to pay more attention to this Fib zone in the future as it seems to be a strong support zone for wave 2 retracements as well. I shouldn't assume that we'll go straight to lower zones just because the primary waves are doing so. Many other coins I'm looking at (NANO, EOS, LTC, BTC, ICX) seems to have bounced at the same zone.
In any case, if we break above the resistance at 1.64$ outlined yesterday, then it probably means we are in a sub-wave 3 of this larger potential intermediate wave 3.
We will need to break above 2.58$ for me to consider this a primary wave 3 however. Price action and indicators near this resistance will help us confirm in due time. Everything looks good so far, but there is a lot of bearish BTC sentiment, so be weary of that.
Finally. Someone has pointed out that I've been using the trend-based Fib extension tool incorrectly (thanks twitter.com/LisaNEdwards), so I'll figure out which method is right ASAP and update my wave 3 target if necessary. Either way, we can use price action, and many other indications to find a reliable top.
Nota
So IOTA broke that resistance barely minutes after my update! Let's see how it holds. We could go down for a retest, but the indicators are indicating more upward potential, especially on the 1 and 2 hour timeframes.
Are we back in for good? It's good to always be vigilant of how trends can change. This chart looks very bullish right now, but if the situation changes then we should always be prepared to reflect this change into our strategy.
Critical times like these require closer market attention, as we've been down trending for a while, and this is the first time we are seeing real indications of change. Regardless, there's no use checking the charts every 5 minutes. I'm updating mine every couple of hours and setting alerts for key zones (the resistances/supports that I mention) in case my attention is required more imminently.
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IOTA intermediate Wave 3 target (conservative). Ignore waves 4-5 for now, targets will be given when a wave 3 roundoff is reached. Remember I'm talking about the intermediate wave 3 here, not the primary. I should expect intermediate wave 5 to reach well above 2.58$ for this to be a successful third primary wave.
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Apologies, my last update was regarding subwaves, not intermediate waves. Here is a large-view snapshot to give you some perspective on intermediate wave 3's status. Nota
I had the chart open in two tabs so it posted the earlier version. Here's a better chart:Nota
Here is the right chart. Sorry about this, I'm not sure what happened with the links and I can't delete them. Either way, it's looking good right now.
Nota
Back to the 4-hour chart, looking at subwave 3:Subwave 3 blasted through my TP1 between 1.0 and 1.618 Fibbonacci, and even managed to extend a wick into the 1.618-1.75 zone. The candles seem a little exhausted at this point, and we got a shooting star reversal indicator. Not to mention, the RSI started flatlining as soon as it hit 70. Adding to this, it seems to be forming a bearish reversal wedge.
The only positive indicators left are MACD and Volume, which show some potential for further upside.
IMO it isn't worth following this further up unless you're in it for the intermediary wave (longer term scale, at least 1-2 weeks). I personally don't day trade, this is just an update for those who do.
Nota
Day Trader Update:IOTA broke past the 1.75 zone (I've also drawn the specific wave 5 Fib zones). The sell signals are getting strong, so I would consider taking profit and picking it up later.
Swing Traders: this strong impulse move gives me more confidence that we are entering an intermediate wave 3 (and hence hopefully a primary wave 3).
Nota
Day Trader Update:Here we go, I've outlined possible buy-ins here. I would allocate laddering ratios based on the probabilities outlined in the image.
RSI bearish wedge has broken.
MACD is starting to round off.
Strong sell volume with wide bodied red candle.
For those of you who aren't happy with these signals, a price action break below the wedge outlined in the image should do it; you could wait until then.
We are starting subwave 2 of intermediate wave 3 as I see it.
Nota
We broke down a solid 10% from where I thought we would, but it's finally happening. My buy targets are in the screenshot.
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We're approaching the first buy zone, although I would be weary with the stop loss given recent bearish BTC indication.
As a side note, let me know what you think of my MACD setup! The yellow histogram is to remind me to check a smaller timeframe (since we have broken the current trend) in order to better anticipate a crossover, since the histogram is a realtime indicator unlike the MACD itself.
Nota
Oops, here are the right buy zones.
My chart reverted to an old setting for some reason.
Nota
The whole market took a 40B$ dip last night, so naturally IOTA has gone down below my set buy orders. RSI seems promising for a reversal though. If your stops have triggered then I would stay out for the time being, it's just too risky to be in any position right now.
Yes, we dipped hard, but not hard enough to consider this a full on bear market, so the uncertainty is still there.
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