IOTUSD Long Turtle S1 Breakout trigger

4 de jun. de 2018

I have undertaken backtesting over the past few weeks on a number of Crypto / USD pairs using the Turtle Trading strategy 1 & 2 as described in goodreads.com/book/show/503534.Way_of_the_Turtle.

On all of the pairs I tested the Turtle Strategy 1 performed best. IOTUSD is first pair where a signal has triggered. I will be updating this trade as it progresses. I will also be linking to other related trades which you can follow once they trigger.

The Turtle Trading strategy is a systematic trend-following breakout trading system which works well in trending markets - its designed to catch the big trends! The strategy looses money over time when the market is ranging. Historically crypto markets have primarily been trending which makes the Turtle strategy a good fit over time.

In this trade I will follow these Turtle strategy principles:

• Entry: Long (or Short) is placed when the price breaks above (or below for Shorts) the price for the previous 20 days.
  
• Position Size: 1% of portfolio size adjusted to account for volatility of the market, known as 1N. More volatile markets have a wider Stop Loss (see below) but they also have smaller position size. This equalises risk across all entries and results in better diversification and more robust risk management. As the portfolio size increases or decreases so therefore will the subsequent position sizing.
  
• Additional Positions: Purchased if price moves in the direction of the trade at 1/2N or 1/2% of portfolio size/risk. A maximum of 3 additional units, making for a total of 4 units will be purchased.
  
• Stop Loss: Placed based on a calculation involving the Average True Range (ATR) for the previous 20 days where the Risk amounts to no more than 2% Portfolio size. i.e. Stop is placed at 2N. If additional units are purchased then each one has its own Stop Loss and each will be executed individually if and when they are reached.
  
• Exit: No fixed exit target is set. Turtles do not agree with the old saying "You can never go broke taking a profit", instead they believe that taking a profit too early is one of the most common and damaging mistakes in trading trend-following systems. Instead an exit will be triggered when the trend has a 10-day low (or 10-day high for Shorts). Thus the Exit is not shown on this trade set-up. If additional positions have been purchased then ALL will be exited when the exit target is hit for the original position.
  
• Maximum Positions: The Turtle strategy advocates a limit on the number of positions held across all traded pairs for uncorrelated and correlated markets. Since all crypto pairs are closely correlated (see: cointrading.ninja/correlation) I will be ignoring this rule and instead following the rule which states that a maximum of 12 long positions and 12 short positions can be held at the same time. It is noted that it is unlikely that 24 positions will be opened as the close correlation of crypto markets means that positions will either be long or short but not both at the same time.
  

Given the rules above the IOTUSD Long triggered yesterday when the price hit a 20 day high. My initial trade is as follows:

P1 (Position 1):
Entry: 1.7792
Stop Loss: 1.3758 (2N)
Position Size: 1N

This is not investment advice. Please always do your own research. If you are interested in this trade or the Turtle strategy in general then please follow me and my turtle trades.
"Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity"

11 de jun. de 2018

Trade fechado: stop atingido

I will reopen a trade (Long or Short) on this pair when the strategy provides a new signal.