Sell order activated / Gold to break Neutral Rectangle downwards

11 de jul. de 2022

Gold's general commentary: Another test of the Hourly 4 chart’s Resistance zone at #1,752.80 - #1,755.80 which again resulted (so far) as an steep rejection. As mentioned on my remarks, this is the Resistance level that Gold needs to break to resume the uptrend and engage the relief rally on Hourly 4 chart, however the neckline keeps the Price-action Neutral and within newly formed consolidation Rectangle. Technically, Bullish breakout point is now seen Trading at #1,756.80 (eminent break will Target #1,785.80 Resistance), while Sellers Target remains the #1,700.80 psychological barrier below #1,732.80 Support in between. What was very interesting as session approached the NFP announcement (better than expected forecast), is that despite the much needed uptrend on Bond Yields that I announced lately, Gold isn't reacting accordingly which confirms my view of prior weeks that Gold's Price-action is mostly following / mimics the DX trend, which is struggling to break back above its Monthly chart’s Resistance zone. That indicates weakness after the potential rejection which in turn should be Bullish for Gold.


Technical analysis: Despite the fact that the DX remains strongly above it’s Annual High’s, Gold manages to hold it’s Neutral candles (with the expected pullbacks distinguished as an Selling opportunity) as the key correlation to watch is with Dollar Index where it has hit it’s Highest point in #20 Years (Higher DX - heavily pressuring / Bearish for Gold). Daily chart is on excellent Bearish Technicals and as long as the #1,752.80 - #1,755.80 Resistance zone holds, I still have the next Short-term Target on the next barrier (currently at #1,700.80). On a different occasion (Daily close above the Resistance zone), expect a retrace back within #1,785.80 - #1,792.80 zone. Regarding the Medium-term, If #1,732.80 breaks, there is a symmetrical level of #1,678.80 Lower Low’s extension to be mindful of, but after such values the way is open towards #1,588.80 Medium-term Support fractal. Medium and Long-term Targets are as mentioned previously as the Daily chart is very Bearish but attention is needed since the RSI got critically Oversold and Death Cross impact is lighter at the moment. If current sequence turns downwards and engages the Selling sequence, Dead Cat bounce formation would be in motion where I was ready to engage my Selling orders. Gold is currently Trading within Hourly 4 chart's Neutral Rectangle, and both sides aren't equally probable as long as DX holds current gains without the correction. Even though Technically Gold should ease Oversold levels, DX movements are still pressuring Gold's Price-action so I do not expect green numbers on Spot prices as long as this phenomenon lasts.


My position: I have engaged Selling order with #1,738.80 as an entry point, Targeting #1,700.80 psychological barrier. If however #1,730.80 - #1,732.80 Support breaks (July #8 Low's) Gold may be extending the Selling sequence all the way below #1,700.80 barrier. Implement strict Risk management if you decide to Trade this and pay attention to DX chart.