Gold Bear Flag Support Test

Gold is now testing support in the bear flag formation. How we got here...

Gold prices broke out above a big level of resistance earlier this month, fueled by a really strong inflation print. But that breakout topped out at 1876, where a 50% marker resides from a longer-term Fibonacci retracement. As that resistance began to show, Gold prices built that bear flag that I talked about last week.

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The key for bulls was a hold of 1834, a level that had previously held 4 different inflections. But buyers couldn't hold that line and bears pushed through that line-in-the-sand aggressively this week. This is yet another bullish breakout that has failed in Gold and that's been the name of the game since last year. Specifically last November 9th, when news of vaccines began to make their way through markets one week after the US Presidential Election. That day produced a strong bearish reaction in Gold and that weakness has held ever since, with numerous false topside breaks.

At this point, sellers appear to retain control, and this is perhaps linked to Bitcoin jumping over the past week as a preferable inflation hedge. Near-term support below the bear flag exists around 1770, as this is the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement from the same major move that produced a 50% marker that caught the recent top.

1680 is the big support level that's so far held three different tests this year, and a fourth test there may not be so kind.
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