Gold Trend 07/10
The upward momentum of gold slowed down last week, with prices trading in a narrow range near the record high. The US employment figures released much better than market expectations last Friday, causing gold prices to drop by $30 within the first half an hour. However, the recent Middle East tension led to a rebound in gold prices as the market price in the risk premium over the weekend.
The risk premium naturally eased back from the weekend, the gold prices fell below 2650 early in the Asian session. We need to closely monitor the developments in the Middle East this week. On the other hand, following the US employment data last Friday, the latest CME Fed. Watch is now showing a 97.9% chance of a 1/4-point rate cut in November, while the chance of a 1/2-point cut has dropped to zero. As the market sentiment turns hawkish for the USD, It's unlikely for the gold price to make a new high this week. Pay attention to Thursday's US inflation data; initial market expectations suggest a continued slowdown in September's overall inflation, which should provide temporary support for gold prices before the release.
1-hour chart(above) > 2670(1) has shown significant resistance after the momentum slowed down last week and the support line(2) originated from Sept. 9 remains effective. Before Thursday's US inflation data, watch for the consolidating triangle (2.1). Later this week, if gold prices can break below the sideway range (3), the downside target could be set at 2600(4)."
Daily chart(above) > Before the November Fed interest rate meeting, continue to use the horizontal range mentioned last week (6) as a trading blueprint. If expectations for US rate cuts slow further, there is a chance for gold to undergo a deeper correction."
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P.To
The risk premium naturally eased back from the weekend, the gold prices fell below 2650 early in the Asian session. We need to closely monitor the developments in the Middle East this week. On the other hand, following the US employment data last Friday, the latest CME Fed. Watch is now showing a 97.9% chance of a 1/4-point rate cut in November, while the chance of a 1/2-point cut has dropped to zero. As the market sentiment turns hawkish for the USD, It's unlikely for the gold price to make a new high this week. Pay attention to Thursday's US inflation data; initial market expectations suggest a continued slowdown in September's overall inflation, which should provide temporary support for gold prices before the release.
1-hour chart(above) > 2670(1) has shown significant resistance after the momentum slowed down last week and the support line(2) originated from Sept. 9 remains effective. Before Thursday's US inflation data, watch for the consolidating triangle (2.1). Later this week, if gold prices can break below the sideway range (3), the downside target could be set at 2600(4)."
Daily chart(above) > Before the November Fed interest rate meeting, continue to use the horizontal range mentioned last week (6) as a trading blueprint. If expectations for US rate cuts slow further, there is a chance for gold to undergo a deeper correction."
Please support us with a like 🚀. Many thz!
P.To
P. To @ 1uptick Analytics
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