GOLD, it's getting serious now

Atualizado

Welcome back. The last analysis went out nicely and I decided to share my midterm point of view to XAUUSD with you.

What happend so far: Gold found support around 1800 and rallyed very impulsive to 2000-2010, where it was rejected several times. Later it found support at the rising trendline of the upward channel and now we are back close to the 2000 level. Also important to mention is, that the big correction started at 2060 and it's not a safe thing that this correction ended so far.

Bullish scenario

A bullish wave count would mean that 1810 is the lasting low, that will not be visited again and a bull rally will start within the next weeks. Therefore in my opinion a fifth wave of the new impuls is needed to confirm the breakout of the downward channel. 1993 - 2010 is the key level to overcome and the possible targets are 2030 to 2080 to complete impuls wave one (started at 1810).

Bearish scenario

A bearish wave count is way more complicated and I would like to just observe the falling trendline of the downward channel. If now new local highs are happening within the next trading days 1938 - 1952 will be the key area to break and continue the downward movement back to the 1900 area.

In the chart you can see the local wave count of the possible bullish movement in green and bearish movement in red. The smaller numbers represent the sub wave count. Please keep in mind, that sub wave counts can easily change, because you have to always adjust it to the real price development. The bullish 2 for example can appear to be much lower according to the elliot wave rules.

How to trade this

There are two possible ways to trade this balanced market situation (buyers and sellers are both strong). You can trade the breakout of the key levels, but in both ways the movement could be very limited. The second option is to catch rejections from support and resistance areas to get into bigger movements.

For the bullish swing trades the support areas are 1970, 1955 and 1940 +/- 5 points.
For the bearish swing trades the resistance areas are 1985, 1993 (and 2000) +/- 5 points.

I'll keep you updated
If you have any questions feel free to ask me in the comments section or per DM.

Nota

According to this analysis I opened the first long trade at 1970 today and set break even now. A further bullish movement is expected with a daily candle close above 1978. DXY is testing the important 103 points key level, be careful.

Nota

Gold is up for another break attempt of the upper channel boundary again.
The long order has made a profit of 190 Pips so far.

There is still a nice trading setup, when the trendline is broken, so observe carefully.

Trade ativo

If you want to go short, here (1989) should be more or less the last opportunity.
But always keep in mind, that you are trading against a strong uptrend.
If the key level of 1993 is breaking the upward movement should continue.

I opened a small lot short here, let's see which way gold will choose today.

Nota

Gold is holding really strong, let's see if we get a clean breakout today.

Trade fechado manualmente

Alright, Gold is retesting the yellow trendline. Keep an eye on the actual 4H candle, if its flips, the possibility of a correction is high.

There will be CPI news from canada soon. I'm taking profit from the 1970 buy now.

Full movement: 200 Pips

Nota

Broke the top again. If this 4H closes strong as it is at the moment 2000 will be reached for sure today.

Trade fechado: objetivo atingido

Nice, if you are still in. Take profit now at 2000.

Full movement: 300 Pips

Trade ativo

Well done so far. What happend? Gold rallyed to the last dynamic support line and very important resistance level at 2000 and got rejected at lower timeframes. Now there is a chance of retesting the levels of 1990 or even 1980 within the next days.

I opened a short order at 1998 with SL at 2005, let's see what we can get.

Nota

Running 30 Pips and we have an inverted hammer on the 15 min timeframe.

Nota

Let's talk about the bullish scenario. The trend is really strong and broke the first important key area of 1993. In my opinion 2000 will be important to observe now and we may get a buy opportunity around 1990 today or tomorrow.

Today is also FOMC with usually comes with high volatility. If the price can overcome 2000, it can grow to 2010, 2020, 2030, 2040 and even 2050.

Trade fechado: stop atingido

Took me out on this one. Losses are part of the business.

Still expect Gold to react somewhere today, but hard to say where, as there are many levels from the past.

Loss: 70 Pips

Nota

Just got the news, that US military infrastructure in Iraq was attacked. Sometimes there are non predictible events in the market, that invalidate technicals.

What's next: If gold can stabilise above 2004, we'll see a movement to 2010 at least.

Nota

Gold wasn't able to stabilise above 2004 and fell back to 2000. We have to wait for the daily candle close for further predictions. All in all the prediction was alright so far, just a bit unlucky with the war news.

What I'm looking for now:
If the price will be rejected from the 2000 level I expect a correction to 1980-1990. If we'll see a strong close above the mentioned bullish targets are on the table again.

Trade ativo

My selfmade indicator is showing a correctional movement coming, so I opened a short at 2000. It's in a really early beta phase, just saying ;)

Nota

SL is recent high 2008 and TP 1 is 1993, so not the best risk to reward ratio. But could be a nice trade, let's see.

Trade ativo

Movement startet and I took some partials to recover the last trade.

Result so far: 30 Pips

SL to BE

Nota

Welcome all new follower, nice to see that my ideas are getting a good reputation.
Let's talk about what happend today. Gold followed the current uptrend and didn't stopped until it overshoot the dynamic resistance, marking the global channel downtrend. Well I was stopped out here, just before gold found a top and corrected.

Trading is the process of learning and from today I take the experience to wait just a bit longer after an impulsive trend movement, if I want to trade a correctional movement.

Overall there is still a good result if you took some trades out of this analysis.

Trade ativo

What's next? I still think there will be a retest of 1885-1993 to collect liquidity for a new breakout attempt over 2000. So my advice is to short from the 2000 level and buy from 1985-1993.

Of course, there is always a BUT. Actually gold is trading above the channel midline. If it stays above this and get stable above 2004 it can explode quite aggressively again.

Let's see what we can get.

Nota

Trade running 30 Pips now. There is support at 1996, be careful.

Trade fechado manualmente

Took profit at 1996

Full movement: 40 Pips
Total profit of this analysis: 200+ Pips

Nota

TP moment came out to be perfect.
Now we are trading in the range of 1996 to 2010 and it's hard to predict the next move as we are in the middle of the range.

Nota

Alright, there is the decision level of 2002,75. A 4H close above can push the price to 2010. A close below can push the price to 1996 and even lower again. But as I said, risky this time as we are in the middle of the range.

Nota

Mixed numbers from US this time. There will be another news later.

Nota

Gold seems to be following my idea to test the area of 1985-1993, but it's quiet difficult to place orders, because of two reasons:
1. News later
2. 1996 is still a strong support

The only opportunity is to sell close to 2000 with a SL at the last swing high (2006)

Trade ativo

Running 40 Pips, let's see if 1996 breaks this time.
SL to BE

Trade fechado: objetivo atingido

TP at 1993
Full movement: 70 Pips

Trade ativo

Scalp Buys
1993 - 1990
Sl 1987

Nota

Took partials at 20 Pips

Nota

Alright not bad so far, it was a boring day but in the end it moved. 1990-1993 is a strong zone and we have to see how the price is reacting to it. If the daily candle closes below there is a high possibility of trading in the range of 1974 - 1993 again. Let's see.

Trade ativo

20 Pips from Entry 1990. If you got in there you can set Sl to BE. 1993 will be the key level today.

Trade fechado: objetivo atingido

Bulls are Back. Taking profit at 1995 and let one position run for the possibility of breaking back into the upper range.

Full movement: 50 Pips

Nota

What's next?
As I mentioned there are two high volume ranges:
1996 - 1910 and 1976 - 1993

If you are interested to see them check the other idea on my TV channel: GOLD, between the high volume levels

What happend today is, that Gold first found support at the lower boundary of the upper range (1996) and later at the upper boundary of the lower range (1993). Now it's traded between both ranges and a decision which range will be traded within the next trading days is outstanding.

A daily close above 1996 is a bullish signal, a daily close below 1993 is a bearish signal. Everything in between is unclear.

Nota

What else?
Gold formed a double top pattern on the daily timeframe. Also there was a lower high today at the asia session and the price was rejected several times from the mentioned 1996 - 2010 range. The possibility of sharp decline within the next trading days is getting more likely.

Targets didn't change and if gold loses the 1976 - 1993 range, the price could fall rapidly to the 1900 - 1920 area.

Nota

As you can see the price returned to the key level of 1993 again, but it looks like a correctional movement should come soon. My suggestion is to sell above 1993 and buy at the next support, which is around 1985, where the last bullish movement started from.

SL won't be easy to set as there are many levels where the price can react. If you can catch a nice entry 1970 would be the best SL, otherwise you have to speculate a bit.

Trade ativo

Gold closed week so I kept sell positions from 1993 open. Tomorrow is bank holiday in US so don't expect big moves. The plan is easy:

Short: 1993-2000
Long: 1976-1985

Nota

Fundamentals:

A fire pause between Hamas and Israel will take place, so I don't expect new triggers from the war

Dollar was supported at the key level of 103 and a rebound is likely

Trade ativo

Big rejection from the 1996 - 2010 range. Opened short positions with a SL of 2006.
A 4 H close below 1993 would be perfect as confirmation.

Nota

I rechecked the chart and saw that gold found support at the orange trend line perfectly. Considering that gold is trading back into the upper range currently we have to be really careful with shorting. A breakout towards higher targets is still on the table and gets likely if one of yesterdays tops will be broken today or tomorrow.

Trade fechado: objetivo atingido

1993 reached again. Taking partials here.

Profit: 30 Pips

Today there won't be big moves because of Thanksgiving.

Nota

No updates today, because I'll be at a expo.

Nota

Back from the expo, checking the Gold chart. What happend?
Gold went back to the upper range (1996 - 2010) but couldn't create a new high again. Weekly close will be bullish, but a close above would have made it more clear.
Still not sure what will happen next, but the picture is not looking like there will be a deep correction soon now.

Nota

The decision I'm talking about since I published this idea should be there next week. Let's talk about how it can look like.

Key levels are still 1976, 1993 and 2010. A close above 1993 started the bullish move to where we are now, so if there will be a close below I expect the price to correct at least to 1976 this time, not 100% sure but the possibility is higher now.

A break above 2010 will open the bullish move, but be really careful with that as it would be wave 5 of an impulse, which usually happens fast, nasty and can end with a bull trap. Technically the move should reach 2030 (1,68 fib extension), but also 1950 could be a great target. I'm interested in jumping into the breakout and even more interested in shorting at 2050, if the price shoots up there. If this is the case I'll create a new idea.

A break below should be interpreted as continuation of the downtrend (current downtrend line is around 2010!) and has a huge potential of breaking down to the 1900 area. If I see a failed breakout attempt or several rejections from the 2000 area I'll try to catch this move.

So as you can see, I still try to keep open minded for what it happening next, even if it will cost me a few stop losses. By the way, one short position from 1993 was stopped out at 1999 today, not a big deal, as I couldn't react.

Trade fechado: stop atingido

1993 to 1999

Loss: 60 Pips

Nota

It looks like this could be the breakout. Let's wait for the daily candle close and make a decision.

Trade ativo

Nice confirmation on the 1H Chart. Starting to go Long with the first position. I'll explain my strategy later.

Trade ativo

Strategy Plan - Breakout from volume range

The breakout over 2010 was strong and so far the price is managing to hold above. This opens new goals up to 2065, but I would suggest trading to 2050 as a maximum and then start thinking about a deep pullback. There is always a possibility for a fakeout, but the time frame therefor is really small. Most likely the price could retest any of the broken levels 2004 or 2010 and then start growing in waves.

My plan is to buy the dips from strong support levels, this lowers the risk and could be possible within this and next week. The scenario gets invalidated if the price breaks down 1996.

BUY LIMIT: 2010, 2004
TP: 2030, 2050
SL: 1995

OPEN TRADE:
LONG @2011 running in Profit 60 Pips now

Trade ativo

2020 reached quickly. Took out some profits, hopefully there will be a retest to enter again.

Nota

Everything between 2014 and 2004 is a good buying opportunity.

Trade fechado manualmente

Took profit at 2027, it's close to 2030 and the price is not easily breaking the 2028 level.

Full movement: 160 Pips

Nota

We have a full profit of 450 Pips so far!

Nota

There is a possibility of shorting a pullback from 2030 if it will be reached today.
I expect a retest of at least 2021 for further growth.

Trade ativo

Selling now, 2033

Nota

Gold is highly oversold on the 1H timeframe now, don't happen quiet often. Placing sell limits at 2040, 2049. Not easy to catch the end of the strong impulse, so I split orders.

Trade fechado: stop atingido

2033 stopped out at 2040. Other limit orders are active now.

Loss: 70 Pips

Nota

There should be at least one more bullish wave. The 2057 target which is the 1,618er Fib is still on the table. This one should be reached at least to complete wave 5 of the bigger impulse wave 1. I will publish my long term view on gold soon.

Trade fechado: objetivo atingido

2040 reached.

Closing the 2049 sell with nice profit, closing 2040 sell on break even.

Full profit: 90 Pips

Nota

If gold closes lower than 2040 today, most likely this will be seen as a change in trend and a correction could follow to 2030, 2020 and even 2010. Also the GDP data could push gold down to one of the levels today. If you see the data coming out as expected or even higher, you could try to jump in. Only worse GDP data can push gold up, I don't recommend to go long today, except from scalping.

Nota

Gold closed bullish today, but the attempt to break into the volume area failed again (so far). I still expect the trend to continue, but it's to risky to buy here, because a possible correction could be deep and nasty.

There are only two options to follow the trend.
- Break into the range with TP around 2070. Very risky!
- Buy from a correction around 2030 or even lower.

The potential for shorting is higher at this point, but it's not suitable to just sell blindly, as it can take you out several times. I see three options.
- Sell at market price, if you want to speculate on a deeper correction. Very risky!
- Sell at 2067-2070. Very nice level to sell, 2052 should be reached at least for a retest
- Sell a new ATH. Always tricky, because you don't have data, but I think the move should be limited by 2100 as a maximum.

The selling potential is huge, as the impulsive movement from the last weeks just skipped nearly all resistance areas. Possible targets are 2020, 2000, 1960, 1940.

Nota

There is a double top formation on the 4h timeframe and the last 4H of today has a huge rejection from the volume zone. It's a risky one, but you can try to short from here with a SL at 2052. If 2038 breaks down, the 2020 area could be reached as the projection target from the double top pattern.

Trade ativo

As I mentioned several times, the 2057 target is still open and the chease fire ended earlier than expected. I'm buying here and maybe a few points lower again.

BUY 2041
SL 2037
TP 2057-60

Trade fechado: stop atingido

Stopped out on this huge manipulation moment. Gold is trading in this range for a while now and a breakout should happen soon. But of course market makers will make it hard to catch this breakout and in my opinion the chances are 50/50 for long or short.

Loss: 40 Pips

Nota

A daily close below 2036 is a sign of further selling pressure. A close above 2044 would be a pre breakout setup for gold. Everything in between has no clear direction, as we have seen today.

Nota

For intraday trading it is way more complicated. The long move is very speculative after this massive sell of from 2050 again today. The short move could happen with a break of 2037 area, but we had several fakeouts from the range in the last days, so there is also a risk for failure here.

Nota

Today's idea could have made a lot of money and my target was reached. But predicting targets is only half of the work and as you could see that manipulated move caught me just before the strong rise. Important is to learn from your mistakes and the 40 Pips loss today is the price for that :)

This idea has a summarized profit of 430 Pips. I will close this idea now and keep you updated on a new one, that will be published this weekend

Kyrean

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