I don't usually hold losers but when I do... OOOF!
Ah what a glorious day for the bears. After the FED meeting 2 days ago gold flash crashed.
The price of gold saw its worst day since 2013. We all know what happened back then.
High inflation and a collapsing civilization doesn't matter if the people with the money
decided everything was just fine. Eventually reality catches up, but that can take time.
I really have become the expert of sucker rallies.
I called this one in an article, just 1 month ago "Gold nonsense copium rally".
I did not know where the top would be exactly, and did not claim I knew,
I lost with my June puts and am holding september expiring ones,
the returns are underwhelming but I did not expect much, was testing out warrants.
More recently when I saw gold violently dip, and retail buying the dip, I knew it was it.
Then the price created a B wave, that was an entry signal.
Maybe better to sell on the B wave rather than while the price is going up...
Not like we are going to run out of fools to buy dips and into B waves.
Originally my target I said was "at least $1800", doesn't sound that ambitious anymore.
But now I think we bobos might get much more than that.
Remember what happened in 2013 AND in 2008:
s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/5/5DbkhNVH.png
Here are a few potential reasons for the crash:
- The FED promising some hikes (by 2023!) convinced nerds with plenty of diplomas but little common sense that "things were going back to normal"
- The coronavirus declining, with vaccinated populations, convinced nerds that have been underperforming indices for decades of "back to normal"
- Justin Trudeau, as judiciously as Gordon Brown, recently sold gold reserves to China as well as mines. Perhaps other countries are selling too?
- Gold bagholders got sick of waiting for the apocalypse that never came, and missing out on S&P 500 95% gains. Regret got too big.
And now gold keeps falling as bagholders that waited so long for nothing see the price come close to their break even.
"Oh no! No way I missed out AND am going to lose money. I am getting out while I am in the green"
Predictable puny hoomans. The US inflation is not going to go Weimar, but rather as I explained before, Romania.
Even if the US goes the Weimar/Zimbabwe/Venezuela way, it will not happen in a few months.
It will probably slowly creep up, with the people in charge making up excuses and claiming inflation is good.
It might spike fast for a short time, but long after they started shooting the currency bazooka.
They can export their inflation as long as there are fools accepting it, and these fools have money to waste.
Gold is not the only thing going down. Really dumb investors in my opinion are buying the USD and selling everything.
"It's ok we are going back to normal". Makes me crack up. The inflation is even going to get worse.
Consumer goods manufacturers have not even raised their prices yet, and they said they soon would.
So this dumb money is betting that in the next 2 years the USD will strengthen?
Or that it won't weaken too much so it's ok to hold some, it's "safe"? Great laughs.
The fundamentals are the same, and selling should just be short term. But how short?
Gold might reverse now! Make a bottom, or v shape. I'm even wondering if I should buy.
If it drops below say $1700 then the dip is more than some very short term panic.
If the price of gold were to drop that low I would be a bear for a while.
Right now... Might be worth a quick buy actually, with a $50 stop. Maybe risky. Crazy.
The price of gold saw its worst day since 2013. We all know what happened back then.
High inflation and a collapsing civilization doesn't matter if the people with the money
decided everything was just fine. Eventually reality catches up, but that can take time.
I really have become the expert of sucker rallies.
I called this one in an article, just 1 month ago "Gold nonsense copium rally".
I did not know where the top would be exactly, and did not claim I knew,
I lost with my June puts and am holding september expiring ones,
the returns are underwhelming but I did not expect much, was testing out warrants.
More recently when I saw gold violently dip, and retail buying the dip, I knew it was it.
Then the price created a B wave, that was an entry signal.
Maybe better to sell on the B wave rather than while the price is going up...
Not like we are going to run out of fools to buy dips and into B waves.
Originally my target I said was "at least $1800", doesn't sound that ambitious anymore.
But now I think we bobos might get much more than that.
Remember what happened in 2013 AND in 2008:
s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/5/5DbkhNVH.png
Here are a few potential reasons for the crash:
- The FED promising some hikes (by 2023!) convinced nerds with plenty of diplomas but little common sense that "things were going back to normal"
- The coronavirus declining, with vaccinated populations, convinced nerds that have been underperforming indices for decades of "back to normal"
- Justin Trudeau, as judiciously as Gordon Brown, recently sold gold reserves to China as well as mines. Perhaps other countries are selling too?
- Gold bagholders got sick of waiting for the apocalypse that never came, and missing out on S&P 500 95% gains. Regret got too big.
And now gold keeps falling as bagholders that waited so long for nothing see the price come close to their break even.
"Oh no! No way I missed out AND am going to lose money. I am getting out while I am in the green"
Predictable puny hoomans. The US inflation is not going to go Weimar, but rather as I explained before, Romania.
Even if the US goes the Weimar/Zimbabwe/Venezuela way, it will not happen in a few months.
It will probably slowly creep up, with the people in charge making up excuses and claiming inflation is good.
It might spike fast for a short time, but long after they started shooting the currency bazooka.
They can export their inflation as long as there are fools accepting it, and these fools have money to waste.
Gold is not the only thing going down. Really dumb investors in my opinion are buying the USD and selling everything.
"It's ok we are going back to normal". Makes me crack up. The inflation is even going to get worse.
Consumer goods manufacturers have not even raised their prices yet, and they said they soon would.
So this dumb money is betting that in the next 2 years the USD will strengthen?
Or that it won't weaken too much so it's ok to hold some, it's "safe"? Great laughs.
The fundamentals are the same, and selling should just be short term. But how short?
Gold might reverse now! Make a bottom, or v shape. I'm even wondering if I should buy.
If it drops below say $1700 then the dip is more than some very short term panic.
If the price of gold were to drop that low I would be a bear for a while.
Right now... Might be worth a quick buy actually, with a $50 stop. Maybe risky. Crazy.
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