2 weeks ahead of schedule...we are there.
Atualizado
I think all magnitude is worked out. Hate to call it, but, it is time. See you all on the moon.
Nota
Just hit wave 5 of 1 extensions, log on or off, and MIGHT get a retrace back to under 11. MAYBE. Closed <5% of my position, and will restrike strike strike on retrace.Nota
BUT, not on negative divergence. This may be middle of the wave. A breach of 11.91(log 12) will confirm we are not retracing from here. LETS GOOOOONota
Upside breach. As far as I can tell, the sky is the limit. I won't comment any further.Nota
We have crossed up past the first lesser (B), which bodes well for continuation to the upside. I also see, and even w adjustments I have made in my chart, we have crossed the Intermediate (1) line (gold line) and this too is a good sign, imo. This is expected, and has been predicted by so many. for so long, BUT It is all in the candles, so tell that to anyone who wants to talk to you about muh FuNdAmEnTaLs. It is really just a guess to try and count magnitude UP at this point, so I will continue to observe and cherish the 500 I bought at the bottom. Best to ALL, CuzNota
I think we are getting a deeper correction, here, could be wrong, but I liquidated 80%. More to the story, but even still, would not have done had I not seen what looks like an obvious A down, B up, with a C-wave down to follow. WILL RESTRIKE. Not a rec, at all, just being real. Still got 100Nota
Ok, so looks like we are getting the first wave 5, based on a count that calls this wave 3 of 5, and we got a higher low on MACD. This is the indication that this should be wave 5, the negative divergence, and I call it 3 of 5 because it is stronger than the last high reading. What I look for here is a move up short of 20, when the wave 2 would ideally start and for MACD to not go higher than today's reading for continued Negative Divergence. I am flat, at this point, so will be observing until I see a good entry to restrike. BIG PICTURE, this move confirms my count, imo, bc it is a true wave 5 and happening on negative divergence. Buckly up!Nota
If anyone would be so kind as to tell me how to add pictures in idea updates, I would be obliged so to do here on this post.Nota
18.74 pre market...Looking for 18.78 min for off log 618 extension fib. log on fibs are higher, and could hit over 20...Looking forward to watching, but I am thinking still in line with broader market, at this point, where a morning spike across the board could get us into the box. Not looking for a deep 2, but will be scaling in probably with my last sell, first...lolNota
Logarithmic it is...if not, log-off would suggest we continue on til morning. I never use log, typically, but who knows...We do have this high on negative divergence, so wave (5) is indicated.Thanks, apb270, but still having trouble keeps posting some other picture of my Gold idea...idk. Will keep tinkering with it.
Nota
Nota
The above up count is basically invalidated and may have been DOA based on a breach of the 2.618 prior to 5th wave divergence. With the overnight action, I am back to "getting a count at this point is just guessing." I am actually more inclined to call this an ABC structure with an Ending Diagonal completing as I write, presumably into the open. With one more high, the waters would be even muddier, mainly because after the deep retrace from earlier last week, all price action has been overlapping, and appears to be a series of 3 wave moves. If price does move higher, past the 1.618, I would expect continuation, and look for a clear impulse line that does not overlap, but like I said, I am out of viable Elliot Wave counts, MAINLY, BC THERE IS NO ORDINANCE TO EXTENSIONS, which should abide during an impulsive move. I am not yet saying the bottom call is invalidated, but I am at this point unable to validate the nature of this move as impulsive to the upside. I will note, my initial target was around 6.95, and was expected closer to now, than then...I will update if clarity develops in the price action.Best to All.
Nota
Well, cannot argue with that. Clearly, this guy is impulsive, and we got a nice, nice wave 3 up the middle. Still unsure exactly what is the main 1-2, but I am looking for some type of pause btw 41.75 & 44 to acknowledge the 2.618. Good job, ladies and gents, great day to all! 5/13/24Nota
If log scale...could go to 112. Whew-eeeNota
27.30 is the 1.0 approximately, so we should move up from here to complete wave 5, and if these fibs are working, 2.618 at 44.09 should not be breached prior to 3 wave retrace.Nota
Appears our 1.0 region is holding, so now we want to see a move up into the 44 region on less strength, meaning the stochastic does not exceed its last peak...higher high, less strength, and that is the signal that wave ((i)) is complete. After that, looking for 3 waves down for wave ((ii)).Nota
It seems slow, but even in the 15 mn chart these are obvious 5 wave moves. I jumped back in bc I think we get there.Nota
Nota
All magnitude is present...had to get into the 30 second chart to confirm, but our impulse line is btw 26.75 & 26.77 @ 26.76...today's Minuette (iv) low was 27.34. I believe we get a contracting Ending Diagonal to finish Minute (i), possibly into Wednesday. The proof, labeled down to Micro.Nota
Nota
Made the initial call based on rules, but this move is too "unruly" for this theorist. Yet another breach where it need not be. Nice little gap, too needs refilling (that's my gap:). MACD still ripping after 5 clear waves...not clean, I said "clear." Prechter says that B waves are notorious imposters. I can still make no conclusion about the up move, but its unruliness suggests it is an imposter., and then again, this post was really about calling a bottom, even if only short lived due to unconsidered magnitude. Flat, again. Still a positive week for us all, and, hey, upshot is, maybe you get to hit 'em TWICE!Nota
This move did 2 things: (1) validated the corrective count from near the top of the correction from Minute Magnitude down through Miniscule; (2) Invalidated the count of Minor and Intermediate degree, indicating that the asset is moving well into its Cycle degree. I am working on the chart and have taken the smaller magnitude out and will be working with Minute and above for the duration of this count, which means it may weeks or months before anything of significance occurs to warrant updates. I want to observe whaether GME holds this level and whether we get some sort of Minute ((c)) wave, perhaps an Ending Diagonal up into the $100 region through June. Ultimately, I believe we must go back down for one more low, and ever since right after the Intermediate (1)-(2) from 2021, folks who were doing this before I even knew it was a thing were calling for 25...Post split, that is about $6.25. I like $7.95, and for you fundamentalists...that is because the company has certainly gained value on the market over the past few years, even if just its intangible Intellectual Property value. With that, I will wrap with these, my newly adopted count, including a cycle wave now in the picture and a prediction for the next move. Best to ALL, -Cuz [_+]Nota
Still tinkering with log v logoff...But this is what I am seeing. The $20 level looks solid with 1.0 A/C corrective extension around 20.50 & .618 wave v of (c) extension around 20.22 with confluence with log off...however, that scale puts a bottom 1.618 A/C fib at like -6.61...SO, LOG ON is in the picture...no confluence but it seems obvious the market is playing with them. IMO, this is a beautiful 3 wave corrective, and while I am counting as a ((b)) wave for the reasons stated above, it would work just as well as a wave 2. That 17 level is what I am really looking for to restrike with a small position, but who knows. MACD is supportive of this analysis and should not go lower than the A wave low on this chart if we are going to reverse up in a ((c)) wave. AGAIN, logoff confluence at $20 and change, not pictured here.Nota
Not trying to overdo it on the updates, so this is just for fun...call it a "thought experiment," as my mentor would say.
Something tells me that we might leave that bottom gap open, for later, and we might kick around in this area for a few weeks, call it consolidation, before we move back up in the Minute ((c)). Triangulating, sort of, I ran some fibs based on this above assumption and the assumption that we should subdivide in this b-wave, as price has already begun to do. Thing about these moves, in my understanding and belief, is that nothing can stop what is coming, best we can do is try and predict it.
Nota
Looks like the retrace should be complete. holding the 1.618 with nice movement up. Let's see if she has one more run. Looking at the 38-40 level as resistance.
Nota
What I learned is this, when making trade decisions, look for fibs to behave and look for a direct hit on a desired fib and a compelling reaction to follow. The white fibs represent that not happening, hitting right between the .618 and the 1.0. SO I look at today's action as a b-wave, and add another layer of fibs. If the count is correct, I would like to see a c-wave into the area of 18.66, Green fib target, and a swift reaction to the upside. anything else, and I will conclude we have another low. For the gap players...we have about a .30 cent gap below the last low, although I have said I think it will be left, for later. Not real complicated, fibs not dialed, since we are trading a stock and not an index...hit in the 18.60s, then move to a new high, I will continue to buy, otherwise, I will hold whatever i pick up in the 18.60s and look to buy some in the gap and then begin to look for my low targets of 6.25-7.95 if we do not move up.Nota
I am now of the opinion that we will work our way back down to fill that gap in some sort of Ending Diagonal...looks to be expanding, now, but who knows how it may subdivide by the time we reach 1718. Nota
Changed the count, a little, btw. Could be a triangle, but it is just as easily explicable as the last 5 of the impulsive C wave and we got fourth wave overlap.Nota
Want to clarify based on some great feedback I received after this last post/pattern tweak/change of expectation for the gap. When I say, "work our way back," and, "who knows how it may subdivide," I mean, we could bounce around here for a while. Elliot did not discover mechanism for timing the market, only predicting what it would do next, and Prechter added levels with his great work with Fibonacci principles. If I had to guess, though, and based on the Intel the options folks are providing...I'd have to guess 2-3 weeks of chop. Wanna add:
I really appreciate the engagement in this process. Love this place, and I love traders and talking markets. There is so much to learn and such intelligent folks in every corner.
Nota
Bought some shares, today, but not laying it all out for a .618 breach, HOWEVER, this would be a bullish area to complete this ((b)) wave correction, and breaches are more common in b-waves and when tracking fibs in single stocks.Nota
Alt Counts: In pink, we have the primary count, the one we have been using, and in green, we have a count that assumes that our initial runnup comprised all of Minor B. Tried to fit some fractals that seemed right, and in either case, it appears we are moving through whatever machinations at a break neck speed. I mean, we have been here before, but no reason to take 2.5 years to trade the sequence, this time. From about midway up, I have maintained that this is not actually our impulsive sequence but merely an additional subdivsion in our Intermediate wave (2). Will we subdivide in B, or is B already done? If B is complete, then we should see new lows, sooner or later. If B is still subdividing, then we should see new relative highs. If price continues at this pace, I expect we should receive some clues within the next 7 days.
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