GBPUSD | Perspective for the new week | Follow-up

Atualizado

The U.S. dollar made a strong comeback on Friday as the latest economic data revealed a much higher job creation rate than anticipated. The U.S. economy added 272,000 jobs last month, significantly surpassing expectations. This robust job growth suggests that the Federal Reserve might delay starting its easing cycle this year. Additionally, the average hourly earnings increased by 0.4%, up from a 0.2% rate in April, further strengthening the case for a strong dollar.

Following this positive jobs report, the likelihood of a rate cut in September dropped to around 50.8%, compared to nearly 70% the previous Thursday.

On the other side of the pond, the focus shifts to the United Kingdom, where the Pound Sterling will be influenced by upcoming Employment data, set to be released on Tuesday. The UK has seen a decline in the number of employed people for three consecutive periods. Any further indication of layoffs could weaken the Pound Sterling, increasing speculation that the Bank of England (BoE) might implement early rate cuts.

Investors are also keenly watching the UK Average Earnings data, a critical measure of wage growth. The UK's persistent wage growth has been a key driver of high service inflation, posing a challenge to bringing price pressures back towards the 2% target.

In this video, we analyze the dynamics between buyers and sellers as they interpret recent economic data and prepare for the upcoming reports this week.

GBPUSD Technical Analysis:
Will the pound maintain selling pressure below $1.27500? Watch this video for key trades this week. Join the discussion for updates on GBP/USD trading. Stay tuned for more content. Happy trading!

Disclaimer Notice:
Trading in the foreign exchange market and other instruments carries high risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content provided here is for educational purposes only. Evaluate your financial situation and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nota

The British pound continues to face pressure from a strong US Dollar rally, driven by growing expectations of a delay in the Federal Reserve's policy shift following robust US employment figures. Despite this, there has been notable buying activity in the market over the last three hours, indicating potential support around the $1.27075 level.

The recent period of consolidation is likely due to investors awaiting key UK Employment data scheduled for release on Tuesday. This data, which includes metrics such as Claimant Count Change, Employment Change, and Average Earnings, could provide fresh momentum for the market. It is worth noting that any sign of increased job losses in the UK economy may fuel speculation of early interest rate cuts by the Bank of England (BoE), potentially leading to selling pressure on the Pound Sterling (GBP).

As we look ahead to these upcoming events, our trading decisions will be guided by the newly identified market structure on the 1-hour timeframe. Further insights into the current market dynamics will be provided during our upcoming live session. Stay tuned for more updates.

Good Morning

Trade ativo

#GBPUSD

As discussed during our live session this morning; two sell positions have been triggered. Secure position now as we continue to monitor price action.

Trade fechado manualmente

#GBPUSD

Sell positions closed at breakeven; Let's recalibrate for re-entry. However, if price action breakout/retest the descending trendline [confirmation needed] then we prepare for buying opportunities.

Trade ativo

#GBPUSD

Secure buy position

Trade fechado manualmente

All buy positions have been closed as selling pressure has resumed. The GBP/USD pair weakened due to disappointing United Kingdom (UK) employment data and a firm US Dollar (USD) driven by expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will delay interest rate cuts.

The UK labor market experienced its fourth consecutive drawdown, marked by a decrease of 140,000 workers in employment while the ILO Unemployment Rate escalated to 4.4%, surpassing the anticipated 4.3%. These figures suggest that businesses are grappling with the consequences of the Bank of England's (BoE) higher interest rates.

Despite the challenging employment scenario, wage growth exhibited stability during the February-April period. Average Earnings Excluding Bonuses, a key wage inflation metric, aligned with projections and the previous release of 6.0%. Moreover, Average Earnings Including Bonuses demonstrated a steady increase of 5.9%, revised upwards from 5.7% and exceeding the anticipated 5.7%. It is worth noting that a robust wage growth could impede the BoE's efforts to lower interest rates resulting in a stronger British pound.

Given the evolving market dynamics, the levels on the chart will remain our guide for today's trading activities. Selling opportunities will be considered only if the descending trendline is broken downside.

Good Morning

Trade ativo

The bullish sentiment observed since Monday's session continues to hold as GBP/USD remains range-bound, showing little impact from the UK's monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Industrial Production data released this morning.

Today's reports on the UK's monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Industrial Production revealed a stagnant economy in April. While the services sector saw marginal growth, the drop in manufacturing activity, particularly in the pharmaceutical and food sectors, highlights the challenges faced by households and businesses due to the Bank of England's (BoE) high interest rates. This weakness in factory data suggests that the BoE might be compelled to ease its monetary policy sooner than anticipated.

Market sentiment remains cautious ahead of today's US inflation data and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, contributing to limited price movement. Given the current market conditions, it is advisable to secure some profits from existing buy positions, as the current chart levels serve as crucial reference points for today's trading activities. Stay tuned for further updates as the market landscape evolves.

Good Morning

Trade ativo

Please secure all buy positions as the price has now entered the sell window we identified during our live session this morning. Note that we will only initiate sell positions if we validate a reversal setup. Further updates will follow soon.

Nota

CLEAN CHART

While all buy positions are secured, we are adopting this set-up in preparation of today's US macroeconomic data

Trade ativo

#GBPUSD

Secure some more profit out of the buy positions as CPI data comes in below market expectation

Nota

All buy positions from yesterday closed with a minimum profit of 270 pips as the British Pound drifted lower amid hawkish Fed-inspired USD buying interest. The mixed technical setup warrants caution before positioning for the next move, as it remains unclear whether the current bearish momentum is a temporary retracement or the beginning of a significant sell-off.

The UK economic growth figures published yesterday showed a stall in April, following a muted rebound from last year’s recession. Besides the hawkish outlook from the Fed, the stagnation in the eUIK GDP may have contributed to the selling pressure on the GBP/USD pair this morning.

From a technical perspective, repeated failures to sustain gains above the $1.28100 mark suggest caution for buyers, especially ahead of the UK national election on July 4. It is prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling before confirming that the recent rally has ended and positioning for any meaningful depreciation of the GBP/USD pair.

In this context, the newly identified structure on the 1-hour timeframe will guide our trading strategy. We will look for buying opportunities (reversal setups) within the buy zone [see chart] to continue the uptrend. However, a convincing break below the key level at $1.27500 will be seen as a fresh trigger for bears, paving the way for further losses. Stay tuned for further updates!

Good Morning

Nota

#GBPUSD

UPDATE

Price is now within the buy window identified earlier.

Nota

#GBPUSD

STRUCTURAL UPDATE | 15 Min Timeframe

confirmation needed

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#GBPUSD

Buy position triggered; secure position now

Trade ativo

It's time to secure the active sell position as GBP/USD continues to trade with a negative bias for the second consecutive day. The recent strength of the US Dollar, driven by the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on interest rates, has overshadowed the impact of softer US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports for May.

The US Dollar has risen again, supported by the Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish stance on interest rates, which has overshadowed the impact of soft US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports for May.

Cooler consumer and producer inflation reports suggest that the core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, is also likely to show softening inflationary pressures. This has increased expectations for early rate cuts by the Fed.

During his press conference on Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that May's soft inflation report is encouraging but emphasized that officials want to see sustained declines in price pressures before committing to rate cuts. He added that policymakers would respond quickly to rate cuts if labor market conditions begin to ease.

Given this narrative, the path of least resistance for the British Pound appears to be downward. Secure the current sell position as we continue to monitor the market for new trading opportunities. Stay tuned for further updates!

Good Morning

Trade ativo

#GBPUSD

As discussed during our live session this morning; The second sell position is triggered. Secure position

Nota

Below is the follow-up detail to the GBP/USD as we prepare for the new trading week.

darcsherry

Trade smart. Trade consciously

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GBPUSD | Perspective for the new week | Follow-up

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