Cable firmly entered the parapets of demand at 1.2365-1.2615 in the opening stages of the year, challenging the lower borders of the area before finding willing buyers and pushing higher. Assuming buyers remain defensive, a run towards supply painted at 1.3472-1.3204 may be in store over the coming weeks.
Daily perspective:
In conjunction with weekly movement, daily activity concluded recent trade closing marginally above resistance priced in at 1.2697 (now acting support). Continued buying from this point could lead to a test of supply at 1.3072-1.2984, according to our technical studies. Above 1.2697, limited supply is visible, with a major portion likely consumed as price declined lower in late November of 2018 (see red descending line).
H4 perspective:
Upward momentum diminished amid early US trade Friday, following an upbeat US employment report. Despite erasing daily gains and clocking fresh session lows, the pair swiftly hit the brakes and gained traction to the upside after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell took to the stage, reiterating FOMC policy is not on a pre-set path.
The move higher lifted the H4 candles beyond 1.27 to January’s opening level at 1.2739, which also happens to represent a Quasimodo resistance (green arrow). It might also be worth noting the day ended in the shape a reasonably nice-looking H4 bearish pin-bar formation.
Note just beyond 1.2739 the chart underlines November and December’s opening levels at 1.2767/65, followed closely by the 1.28 handle.
Areas of consideration:
In spite of both weekly and daily price showing signs of further upside this week, entering long on the H4 timeframe at current price is chancy given current resistance, and a H4 bearish candlestick configuration to boot.
Despite H4 resistance, though, higher-timeframe buyers, which should take precedence over lower-timeframe counterparts, appear on a strong footing. For that reason, should traders observe the 1.27 handle hold ground (which also effectively represents daily support at 1.2697) and price action chalk up a reasonably solid bullish candlestick formation, a long in this market could still be worth considering (entry/stop parameters can be defined according to this pattern).
Today’s data points: US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.
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