Well done to those short wave 5 from strong supply!
GBP/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Bottoming at lows not seen since the 1980s, ahead of a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 1.1297, March’s candle has staged an impressive recovery and regained approximately 80% of the month’s losses.
Support at 1.1904/1.2235 may, albeit having its lower edge recently shattered, remain relevant should price close the month above its base. Nearby resistance can be seen in the form of a trendline formation (1.7191).
Concerning the primary trend, lower peaks and troughs have decorated the monthly chart since early 2008.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
Trendline supports drawn from 1.2373 and 1.2041 continue to serve as a technical ‘floor’ in this market, with price recently going toe-to-toe with an interesting area of supply from 1.2212/1.2075, with the bulls clearly the victor here.
Supply at 1.2509/1.2372 entered view as a result of further buying Friday, closing not too far off best levels and potentially threatening moves to demand-turned supply at 1.2649/1.2799, which holds the 200-day SMA at 1.2663.
Monday closed in the form of a doji candlestick pattern around the top edge of Friday’s range.
The RSI indicator continues to extend off lows at 17.00, though struggling to gain north of 50.00.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
In recent sessions we watched sterling mildly fade levels a touch south of a reasonably robust supply at 1.2622/1.2517, close by a 61.8% Fib retracement value at 1.2499. Another supply worthy of note is 1.2854/1.2808, effectively representing the decision point that broke the 1.2725 28th February low.
Also significant on this timeframe is the recent formation of demand plotted at 1.2147/1.2257, just north of a supply-turned demand at 1.2136/1.2049.
H1 timeframe:
Supply at 1.2520/1.2455 made its debut ahead of the weekly close. Note this area came with additional resistance in the form of a round number at 1.25, a wave 5 completion and the RSI indicator pencilling in bearish divergence from overbought space.
Selling, as underlined in Monday’s analysis, could land 1.24 in view, with a break drawing focus towards channel resistance-turned support (1.1972), and possibly 1.23.
Structures of Interest:
It was stated in Monday’s report H1 supply, given its local confluence on the H1 timeframe, is likely of interest– even more so knowing the base is tied to the underside of H4 supply at 1.2622/1.2517 and glued to the top edge of daily supply at 1.2509/1.2372.
Traders short from the current H1 supply have likely reduced risk to breakeven and banked partial profits. A violation of the current H1 channel support could draw in 1.23, which is likely viewed by many as the next take-profit target, with a break eyeing the top edge of H4 demand at 1.2257, perhaps representing a final take-profit level.
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Bottoming at lows not seen since the 1980s, ahead of a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 1.1297, March’s candle has staged an impressive recovery and regained approximately 80% of the month’s losses.
Support at 1.1904/1.2235 may, albeit having its lower edge recently shattered, remain relevant should price close the month above its base. Nearby resistance can be seen in the form of a trendline formation (1.7191).
Concerning the primary trend, lower peaks and troughs have decorated the monthly chart since early 2008.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
Trendline supports drawn from 1.2373 and 1.2041 continue to serve as a technical ‘floor’ in this market, with price recently going toe-to-toe with an interesting area of supply from 1.2212/1.2075, with the bulls clearly the victor here.
Supply at 1.2509/1.2372 entered view as a result of further buying Friday, closing not too far off best levels and potentially threatening moves to demand-turned supply at 1.2649/1.2799, which holds the 200-day SMA at 1.2663.
Monday closed in the form of a doji candlestick pattern around the top edge of Friday’s range.
The RSI indicator continues to extend off lows at 17.00, though struggling to gain north of 50.00.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
In recent sessions we watched sterling mildly fade levels a touch south of a reasonably robust supply at 1.2622/1.2517, close by a 61.8% Fib retracement value at 1.2499. Another supply worthy of note is 1.2854/1.2808, effectively representing the decision point that broke the 1.2725 28th February low.
Also significant on this timeframe is the recent formation of demand plotted at 1.2147/1.2257, just north of a supply-turned demand at 1.2136/1.2049.
H1 timeframe:
Supply at 1.2520/1.2455 made its debut ahead of the weekly close. Note this area came with additional resistance in the form of a round number at 1.25, a wave 5 completion and the RSI indicator pencilling in bearish divergence from overbought space.
Selling, as underlined in Monday’s analysis, could land 1.24 in view, with a break drawing focus towards channel resistance-turned support (1.1972), and possibly 1.23.
Structures of Interest:
It was stated in Monday’s report H1 supply, given its local confluence on the H1 timeframe, is likely of interest– even more so knowing the base is tied to the underside of H4 supply at 1.2622/1.2517 and glued to the top edge of daily supply at 1.2509/1.2372.
Traders short from the current H1 supply have likely reduced risk to breakeven and banked partial profits. A violation of the current H1 channel support could draw in 1.23, which is likely viewed by many as the next take-profit target, with a break eyeing the top edge of H4 demand at 1.2257, perhaps representing a final take-profit level.
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