GBPUSD sell thinking about the 4 the range

19 de jan.

In the 4-hour timeframe, a significant range is evident, and the momentum from the top to the bottom surpasses the momentum from the bottom to the top. This momentum shift indicates a more assertive presence of sellers compared to buyers, particularly within the established range.

Before the range formation, there was a bullish trend. Combining these observations, I can formulate a hypothesis suggesting that the strong buying force on the 4-hour timeframe has been absorbed or overwhelmed by sellers from higher timeframes, at least within the current range.

Upon examining the daily timeframe, I observe an overextended selling trend, raising the possibility of a continuation of the higher timeframe (HTF) selling trend. Additionally, the volume profile provides supportive evidence, indicating the highest volume concentration above the middle of the range in the 4-hour timeframe. This aligns with the narrative that higher timeframe sellers are gradually dominating orders within this range.

Furthermore, despite news related to GBP buying (specifically the CPI of GBP), the range break has not occurred. This lack of a breakout suggests that the prevailing selling pressure is maintaining control, possibly indicating a more sustained downward trend.

24 de jan.

Comentário

In the last New York session, a robust selling movement unfolded, overpowering the structure of the 4-hour buying channel. Attempting to initiate a buy position against the force of this strong sell movement seems somewhat illogical, especially without reaching the lower boundary of the 4-hour range. Given this context, I consider the current upward movement as a potential target.

Once the target loses its momentum, I plan to sell unless a higher low (HL) is established, particularly at the point where the forceful breach originated. This approach aligns with the recognition of the strength of the recent selling pressure and the need for a cautious strategy when considering a reversal in market direction.