Shallow Opp; 2 Triggers, 1 Target - Best/Worst Cases | $GBP $NZD

BEST-CASE SCENARIO - TRADE PROFILE (BCS):

- Stop = 2.00651
- Entry = 2.01034
- Limit = 2.07432
- RR = 16.7:1

Further interim decline is expected, down to a probable 2.00913 support, defining a low-exposure entry point against a shallow Stop. Limit is defined based on ideal technical circumstance, where a near-perfect combination of alignment between Fibonacci + 2 prop patterns + predictive/forecasting model data has occurred.


PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING DATA (unconfirmed):

- Bullish
- Invalidation 2.02538
- TG-1 = 2.07474 - 11 DEC 2014


GEOMETRIES:
- Janus Pattern (prop.)
- Great White Pattern (prop.)

FUNDAMENTALS:
- Expecting further decline in NZD based on recent bearish dairy commodities price data
- Commodities-wide outlook remains bearish and likely to continue propagate thru dairy price
- OCR rate (3.5% - unchanged) adds pressure to NZD; offers further downside
- GBP rate (0.5% - unchanged) remains low; offers very little little downside
- NET impact is most bearish on commodity-based NZD


WORST-CASE SCENARIO - TRADE PROFILE (WCS):
- Invalidation occurs first
- Stop = 1.96045
- Entry = 1.97042
- Limit = 2.07432
- RR = 10.42:1
- Price finds soft R/S levels at 1.98382
- Price holds at solid R/S = 1.96868
- Invalidation < 1.96169


OVERALL:
- DIRECTIONAL BIAS = Neutral until triggers/invalidation occurs
- Probability highest towards further price decline (favors WCS)
- Strat based on defined structural data

David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA

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