Predictive Model Eyes Support At 161.808 | $GBP $JPY #forex

Traders,


PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL DEFINES SUPPORT:

Predictive/forecasting model signaled further decline towards a structural lower-low, relative to a nadir carved out at 163.165 on February 04th, 2014. Model also defined a support as:

- TG-Lo = 161.808 - 21 OCT 2014

Considering the larger timeframe, a retracement to higher-highs might occur in the interim, but such upside potential remains limited per model's bearish directional bias.


LIMITED UPSIDE POTENTIAL:

More specifically, there is significant resistance at 174.363 per predictive/forecasting model, whereas structural resistance can be easily found at 175.330 per evaluation of lower timeframes, where such attainment would also complete a Head & Shoulder's anatomy - Both of these upside values are defined in the chart in BLACK.


FIBONACCI TIME ZONE DEFINES POTENTIAL TIMING:

Worth noting here is the application of a Fibonacci Time Zone, defining specific points along the Fibonaci's series using Wave-A as its base.

While points 2 and 5 of this Fibonacci Time Zone seem to result in discreet price inflections, a significant action occurred at point 8, as it defined a historical high and the completion of Elliott Wave's Wave-B (assuming that the developing geometry is an Elliott Wave's Extended Flat, where a corrective form in Wave-B terminates beyond the origin of a corrective Wave-A, and Wave-C is expected to span beyond the termination point of Wave-A and over to TG-Lo = 161.808 via an impulsive form.

However, most importantly, point 13 of the same Fibonacci series approximates the intersection of a dominant supportive trendline and above defined TG-Lo = 161.808.

To be candid here, I have nudged the trendline so as to offer a best approximation. Still, the proximity of these points call for a serious consideration of this price x time level, since both the model and the Fib time zone projections occurred as independent variables.


OVERALL:

Apart from this geometric coincidence, the predictive/forecasting model signals a strengthening of bears, and eyes a solid support at 161.808. Whether an Elliott Wave corrective geometry pans out, or a Fibonacci time zone help define a specific level at which price might retrace remains more an academic exercise here, than added technical evidence to the mode's assertion. Therefore, I suggest that the technical trader rests on his/her own tools and due diligence.

Cheers,

David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA

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Twitter: 4xForecaster
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