GBPUSD
The Bank of Canada cut its key interest rate by 25bps to 4.75% in its June 2024 meeting, as expected, and signaled that more rate cuts are to be delivered should inflation continue to slow as expected. The central bank noted it has stronger confidence that disinflation is converging toward the target of 2%, warranting a less restrictive policy stance. Both of the Bank’s preferred measures of underlying inflation moved to below the 3% threshold in April, and are expected to continue decreasing throughout the year along with the headline CPI. In the meantime, Canada’s first quarter GDP growth was softer than the levels expected by the BoC, and labor data pointed to a tightening job market, further warranting a response of more accommodative credit conditions. Still, the Bank noted that upside risks to price growth remained, magnified by uncertain geopolitical tensions and a relatively more hawkish Fed, raising question marks on how quickly the interest rate can fall.
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