GBPAUD Leavid out the wedge to the Northern
TREND BULLISH
GBPAUD breaking now slowly the wedge consolidation to the upperside.
“The Bank of England has warned that it is likely to underwhelm with rate hikes as the UK enters a recession that could last until 2024.”
Economic growth will remain hampered and inflation high until the energy crisis eases – however this is to a large degree outside of domestic control, with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine driving up energy prices.
What Drives the Australian dollar?
The AUD is what is known as a commodity currency, in that it aligns itself with the world prices of primary commodity products. Australia relies on the export of certain materials such as coal and iron ore for a substantial part of its income.
“Given that China is the world’s largest consumer of commodities, and Australia’s largest trading partner, the health of the Chinese economy can be a key influence on AUD,” Griffiths says.
“The Australian dollar was weighed down in 2022 by global recession fears and the zero-Covid policy in China, its largest trading partner.”
By 2024, inflation in the UK is expected to return to target levels set by the Bank of England. Along with a recovery in economic growth and a potential resolution to the Brexit Northern Ireland protocol, the pound could see a “strong recovery,MAYBE!
GBPAUD breaking now slowly the wedge consolidation to the upperside.
“The Bank of England has warned that it is likely to underwhelm with rate hikes as the UK enters a recession that could last until 2024.”
Economic growth will remain hampered and inflation high until the energy crisis eases – however this is to a large degree outside of domestic control, with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine driving up energy prices.
What Drives the Australian dollar?
The AUD is what is known as a commodity currency, in that it aligns itself with the world prices of primary commodity products. Australia relies on the export of certain materials such as coal and iron ore for a substantial part of its income.
“Given that China is the world’s largest consumer of commodities, and Australia’s largest trading partner, the health of the Chinese economy can be a key influence on AUD,” Griffiths says.
“The Australian dollar was weighed down in 2022 by global recession fears and the zero-Covid policy in China, its largest trading partner.”
By 2024, inflation in the UK is expected to return to target levels set by the Bank of England. Along with a recovery in economic growth and a potential resolution to the Brexit Northern Ireland protocol, the pound could see a “strong recovery,MAYBE!
Nota
The pound remains well below its pre-pandemic level, however as the UK economy continues to recover, the pound will strengthen.Nota
Whether the pound rises or drops depends largely on the UK macroeconomic backdrop and the Bank of England’s monetary policy, relative to other major central banks.“High inflation, the ongoing cost of living crisis, and an impending recession could pull the pound lower over the coming quarters,”
Nota
Historically, the British pound has been one of the world’s strongest currencies—Britain is home to the oldest and most revered financial institutions on Earth—and it is the fourth most traded currency in the world. Australia’s currency is twelfth. Australia is also highly dependent on China for export revenue, and relations have been frosty in recent years, with trade restrictions placed on our most valuable exports.However, the UK was much harder hit than Australia by the Covid-19 pandemic, and the pound has softened as a result.
This trend appears to be a fixture over the long-term as the Australian dollar has benefited from higher Australian interest rates and rising commodity demands from China.
Nota
Australian Business Confidence Survey Shows Rising Purchasing CostsNota
Australian business confidence figures failed to impress this morning. Stable labor costs and rising purchase costs will be red flags for the RBANota
The NAB Business Confidence Index increased from -1 to 0 in April versus a forecasted +1. While the headline figure drew interest, the sub-components also needed consideration. Focal points included Labor costs, purchase costs, final product costs, and retail prices. However, forward orders also drew interest.According to the April survey,
Business conditions slipped by 2 points to +14. Despite the downward trend, the Index remained above average.
Leading indicators disappointed, with forward orders down from +3 to +1 and CAPEX falling by 2 points to +6.
However, it was a mixed set of price and cost Indexes.
Labor costs held steady at +1.9, while purchase costs increased from +1.9 to +2.3.
Final Products Prices slipped from +1.3 to +1.1, with retail prices falling from 1.7 to +1.4.
Despite the fall in final product prices, stable labor costs and rising purchase costs will likely draw the RBA’s attention.
Last week, the RBA noted that wage growth was pushing inflation higher. An upward trend in wage growth and softer inflation, albeit moderate, would improve household disposable income and support a pickup in household spending.
Other Australian economic indicators included building approvals, which slipped by 0.1% in Mach versus a forecasted 3.0 increase. In February, building approvals jumped by 3.9%.
AUD/USD Reaction to the Australian NAB Business Confidence Survey
Before the business confidence numbers, the AUD/USD rose to a high of $0.67552 before falling to a pre-stat low of $0.67399.
However, in response to the business confidence figures, the AUD/USD rose from $0.67452 to a post-report high of $0.67543.
This morning, the AUD/USD was down 0.02% to $0.67485.
Nota
PriceGBPAUD last price was £ 1.79953 .
Trend analysis
In the short term GBPAUD has been accelerating higher. In the long term GBPAUD has been accelerating higher.
Value analysis
Over the past 20 days, the GBPAUD price increased 13 days and decreased 7 days. For every up day, there were 0.54 down days. The average return on days where the price increased is 0.3728% The average return on days where the price decreased is -0.2309%
Nota
GBP/AUD must trade below 1.8121 or GBP/AUD targets 1.8175, 1.8204 and 1.8253. Below 1.8051 targets breaks at 1.7971 and 1.7957 to trade to 1.7849, 1.7738, 1.7694. GBP/AUD trades significantly overbought particularly from 1.7600's.Nota
Asian Stock Market: Bulls and bears jostle at monthly top ahead of central bank decisionsAsia-Pacific shares grind near one-month highs amid cautious mood.
Softer Japan inflation, hopes of no PBOC rate hike underpin mildly positive risk appetite.
Holidays in Australia, light calendar elsewhere join pre-Fed anxiety to limit market moves.
Gold price is looking to extend Friday’s pullback from five-day highs of $1,973 on Monday. Despite the retreat, Gold price maintains its last week’s range, as investors turn cautious ahead of a big week, with eyes on the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) and US Federal Reserve policy announcements
USD/JPY strengthens beyond mid-139.00s on modest USD uptick, lacks bullish conviction
USD/CHF Price Analysis: Bounces off 200-SMA but recovery remains elusive below 0.9100
GBPUSD SHORT on hawkish FED
SHORT
DAX40 Will Rise much more Higher
LONG
Nota
trade is open
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Aviso legal
As informações e publicações não devem ser e não constituem conselhos ou recomendações financeiras, de investimento, de negociação ou de qualquer outro tipo, fornecidas ou endossadas pela TradingView. Leia mais em Termos de uso.