FUBO "B" wave bottoming? First upside target 4.85USD?
Atualizado
This is a followup idea on my previous one where we "idezied" the bottoming process, which so far has been manifested. So far I see it as a huge (A)(B)(C) forming to the upside, hence the choppiness, which overall LIKELY will stay as 3 wave structure hitting a several year upside target of between 22 - 84 USD, too soon to projectile anything more proper target. Can it be something even more bullish? Yes, but it has to proove a lot in the upcoming years. In that case it is LIKELY to be a huge overall diagonal.
What I lean towards is that we are in the huge white (A) wave, unfinished still, within that we likely to have a big ABC structure, in which the "A" wave likely completed, and we are in the "B" wave down. I have already removed the 0.382 and 0.5 fib retracement levels, generally we are reaching/has reached a very good risk/reward ratio already for the long term.
As this could be the b wave down, it is quiet tricky, morphing, wavecount changing and evolving, and likely to have more choppiness. Even it COULD undershoot as still be valid, hence I have carefully, but constantly scaling back-in for long
Next support levels to watch: 1.65-1.50
After that: 1.30-1.20 (less likely, but CAN happen)
After that: 1.16-1.05 (even less likely, but CAN happen)
Currently we are below all meaningfull moving averages (9/21/50/180&200 day MA's), but within support.
I have added a "bearish" route/count as well, for the very long term I am still bullish even in that scenario, however likely to have 1 or 2 more swingdowns deeper to complete the yellow route big wave 5, and THEN (assuming no banktrupcy) would have at least a very strong correction to the upside.
What I lean towards is that we are in the huge white (A) wave, unfinished still, within that we likely to have a big ABC structure, in which the "A" wave likely completed, and we are in the "B" wave down. I have already removed the 0.382 and 0.5 fib retracement levels, generally we are reaching/has reached a very good risk/reward ratio already for the long term.
As this could be the b wave down, it is quiet tricky, morphing, wavecount changing and evolving, and likely to have more choppiness. Even it COULD undershoot as still be valid, hence I have carefully, but constantly scaling back-in for long
Next support levels to watch: 1.65-1.50
After that: 1.30-1.20 (less likely, but CAN happen)
After that: 1.16-1.05 (even less likely, but CAN happen)
Currently we are below all meaningfull moving averages (9/21/50/180&200 day MA's), but within support.
I have added a "bearish" route/count as well, for the very long term I am still bullish even in that scenario, however likely to have 1 or 2 more swingdowns deeper to complete the yellow route big wave 5, and THEN (assuming no banktrupcy) would have at least a very strong correction to the upside.
Trade ativo
3batch of small positions for long ~@2.20, ~@1.85, ~@1.72 scaled back inTrade ativo
4th small position added for long @ 1.66Trade ativo
1st mid size position added for long @ 1.56Also, we cleared one small GAP
Nota
Breakout attempt in progress likely. Now it COULD be a WXY structure to complete the pullback, in whixh one more little swinglow can happen, but technicly the wavecount is full for that.IF however it is not a WXY, then the yellow wave 4 wont be able to break above 2.29 USD comfortably, for that the red resistance box is adjusted. In that case we will have an other big a-b-c structure to the downside. That is not my main focus though.
Nota
Moving sideways while 0.618 big support box providing support. Altough I must say, this is looking more and more like a wave circle 4 correction for the yellow.Trade ativo
2nd mid-size position added @ 1.37Nota
Entering onto key fib support areas, one first support was hit (0.786 fib support) measured from the last big leg down.Price should find support either for the white or yellow route starting now, down to the next extensions. So far no indication of a bottoming structure.
Nota
Likely we will hit 1.26 as the next target. I have added a micro-count, but it is fragile. Starting likely the last, 5th sub-wave down.Trade ativo
3rd mid-size position added @ 1.25Nota
I would primarly still expect a bigger swingdown, but TECHNICLY the lows COULD be in for the bull scenario. The micro support level box (fib box) should hold therefore if pullback arriving.The wiggles and choppiness of the micro-price actions suggest for me that we are in wave c as a diagonal of a bigger B wave, followed primarly by a C wave down, likely consisting 5 waves. Still I have marked ALT B as white, in case we did have the bottom for the overall HUGE B wave.
Trade ativo
4th mid-size position added @ 1.32Nota
I needed to modify a bit the yellow count. In that we could be the last abc down to complete the 5th wave of the big C wave down to finish off the huge B wave which is this post about. Under 1.11 I would be skeptical, altough we might then deal with an "undershooting" big B wave.Alternatively the huge B wave have finished and likely we are putting in the first 1-2 setup, but be aware as the wave 1 is 3 count only, likely it will be a diagonal (or rising wedge like formation).
Nota
We hit the first "acceptable" target of a possible yellow (c) wave down at the 0.786 target level. Now technicly I can count 5 waves down in a diagonal pattern already, assuming price not breaking sustained the 1.19 level.I have put an other count to the chart if it wants to extend then we need to finish off the 3, put in a correction as 4, and then finish off the 5 within (c).
So far the 2/4 hr trying to put in a divergence on the RSI/MACD, daily showing so far no major event, but the weekly turning upwards. Be aware though under 1.11 if a comfortable/sustained break happens, then it is very likely we gonna deal with an "undershooting" B wave OR something more bearish going on.
This means if price action wants to turn around it should not hesitate too much anymore.
Trade ativo
1st big position added @ 1.14Nota
Likely we put in the yellow wave 3, followed by a sharp 4. Now, this is the micro count which is a bit unreliable (the deeper I go the less reliable it will be), BUT technicly it could be possible that the lows are in and we are not getting 1 or maybe 2 more swinglows as per the yellow (that would be the wave 5). The reason I am updating now, because I can count now in a different way 5 micro-wave up, so maybe, just maybe the lows could be in. For that, to manifest, the current pullback should not have a sustained break below 1.17, and the micro 5 wave up should form a mini 5 wave up (or a bigger ABC as wave white 1 in a diagonal).
Nota
remaining GAP filled/cleared. Current white route failed. 1 (which is happening already) or 2 more swing low could be reasonable to technicly complete now the yellow route.Nota
Potentially we could have a first 5 wave in as a diagonal, but i do not trust it yet. ( alt (1) ). It would be better to have one more swinghigh as a zigzag/abc, it would be more proportional. For that the smaller fib box should hold, which already reached.For the alt (1) the box below, which is a bit overlapping should hold, and then we would need to see an impulsive move to the downside. So overall it has a chance now to turn around if the market wants.
In the yellow scenario where we need to witness the subwave 5 to bottom in the sequence, therefore could be in, although it would be a short subwave. Therefore we cannot rule out that this is just an overshooting b wave in that last wave 5. As long as the lower fib box is holding, further upside is possible directly.
Nota
Smaller fib box removed, as probabilities has dropped exponentially. Relevant is the bigger fib box. We have a 3 wave move as a retracement, where each wave is also a 3 count move. So either we are having that as a WXY, or we are still in the yellow with the overshooting yellow B wave, and the move suggest we gonna have an ending diagonal with 5pieces of abc structure to the downside.So far we attempted a breakout, which failed, likely bulls will try an other one.
Nota
So far it SEEMS like we did bottom/trying to bottom, but we are not out of the woods yet; should we have now a sustained break below 1.19 USD, likely the wave B wave is extending further down (and opens the possibilites for an undershooting B wave, but we dont discuss that for now, as there is no evidence). So far, we only have 3 wave up, and even that 3 wave is quiestionable/deceptive.What we need is 5 waves up, with a 3 wave pullback holding the relevant support. On the previous update we had that. That box has been removed, it seems to follow the upside path; in fact an optimal target for a wave 3 has been reached (1.382 extension).
Now, for me the wave (3) seems like an abc move, therefore likely part of a bigger diagonal, where wave (4) allowed to retrace to the 0.618 wave4 retracement and count it still as a reliable one. Pixel perfectly hit, and we had a reaction. We miss one more upside movement for wave (5), which should minimally hit 1.62 USD, next targets: 1.66, 1.75, maybe even 1.80/1.83, altough that would be a bit streched.
I have added (or continued?) a yellow route as well, but now we assume it has bottomed. I count the full upmovement as a done, full diagonal in an other way, not the nicest one, but technicly also possible. In that scenario therefore we did have 5 waves up already, therefore wave 1 completed and we are coming down / or have bottomed already (but thats unlikely) in wave 2. Ideally it holds 1.26, but definetely must hold 1.19.
Wave 3 target then minimally would need to hit 1.95, ideally 2.10, 2.26 would be even better. Anything above that, would be an extension, but its early to tell.
Nota
Counts adjusted. Now if we drop below 1.19, probabilities growing exponenatially we are heading down to new all time lows. It could still be an undershooting B wave in that case. So far the lower, bigger support box holding.
For the white to be valid, support MUST hold now, and we need to form a 5 bigger wave up above 1.84.
Nota
Early warning: 0.786 level seemingly breaking down, seems like the yellow's probabilities are growing. The challenge now will be, will it stop within range, or becoming an "undershooting" b wave, or is it something more bearish going on?
Despite very good earnings (they are very much on the right track), liquidity is selling into strenght. This highlights a fear of recession (I assume), where even good, meaningful progress/earnings does not matter at the moment. Which should have been the catalizator for the white route. It is NOT invalidated yet, but falling below the 0.786 signaling, it will likely fail.
Nota
No sustained break happened down on the 0.786 levels, turned around;I keep that support there.
Now, so far the moveup overall for the white seems unfinished for wave (3), but technicly it has reached, in fact overruned its target above the 1.618 extension. I just dont like the structure of it - might happen that we need to adjust the counts or add an alternative one. New possible targets added to the upside, although the sellof is quiet strong; in fact the 200 day MA rejected the price action, also there is structural resistance present there - will be hard to break above I assume.
I have added a yellow box which should hold if the white microcount is correct, BUT be prepared if its drops lower it might be an even bigger diagonal forming, either way, we should NOT have a new low at this point - otherwise it is something more bearish.
Nota
Wavecounts adjusted; so far to be frank not looking too convincing. At least one more wave up missing for the bullish scenarios. Alternatively this whole movement from the bottom of previous month was a wave 1 as an abc.
I have marked now the orange; should we fail to form any 5 wave up (essentially we would need to be in a C wave), then likely we are in the orange, and 55-80 cents are coming as a the first target of an "a" wave. So far there is no decisive evidence for that; just a headsup.
Nota
Early warning: white is heavily challenged now; not yet invalidated but near to it. Probabilities starting to shift to yellow and orange. Remember - for the orange we need to have a sustained break below 1.27 thats a first sign; breaking below 1.14 sustained is a heavy second sign.Nota
Long term view just as a reminder:
White is still not invalidated, but very shallow probability, unreliable.
At least we should reach the blue dotted line as a first target (2.45+), IF being a bigger diagonal, then 4USD+ as we should be in a "c" wave up. Still, please be aware of the orange, one more low below 1.08 usd would definteley give us 5 waves down as a diagonal to the downside, indicating further lows are incoming (0.70-0.40 cents primarly).
So far, the bigger white fib box is holding, however also so far no indication as a long lasting low is in place. No evidence for that.
Nota
Big white box still holding, micro support fib box added, which already challenged with the huge drawdown. Sustaned break below 1.41 growing the chances next level to be tested is ~1.27-ish, and also grows further the orange route probabilities. The drowdawn is already 5 waves on the micro, suggesting further downside, UNLESS the previous structure is an irregular flat. Long story short the big white box should hold for the direct bull scenario.
Publicações relacionadas
Aviso legal
As informações e publicações não devem ser e não constituem conselhos ou recomendações financeiras, de investimento, de negociação ou de qualquer outro tipo, fornecidas ou endossadas pela TradingView. Leia mais em Termos de uso.