Viés de alta
FTM ABC: Full view 07/16/2024
Defining cycle by 5 parts:
1. Bottom: price hits lowest before crossover
2. EMA cross up: ema 22 goes above ema 55 on daily timeframe
3. Peak: price peaks in between the ema cross up and downthis period,
4. EMA cross down: ema 22 goes below ema 55 on daily timeframe
5. Bottom: price hits its lowest bottom after the cross
Cycle A
Bottom A-
(Mar 13th 2020) price bottomed $0.0017
EMA cross up A-
>68 days later
(May 20th 2020) EMA 22 went above the EMA 55
Peak A-
>105 days later
-(Sep 2nd 2020) price peaked @ $0.0566
>173 days bottom to peak
EMA cross down A-
> 46 days later
-(Oct 18th 2020) the EMA 22 closed below the EMA 55.
Bottom B-
>17 days later
-(Nov 4th 2020) price bottomed at 1.262c. (-77% from previous peak $0.0566.)
>63 days from Peak A to Bottom B.
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Time of Cycle A: 236 days
>236 days from Bottom A to Bottom B (entire Cycle A)
Time of Bottom A to Peak A: 173 days
>173 days Bottom A to Peak A (best buy to best sell)
Time of Peak A to Bottom B: 63 days
>63 days Peak A to Bottom B (best buy after peak the best sell)
Cycle A most profit:
> $0.0017 to $0.0566 33.29x (3329.41%)
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Cycle B
Bottom B-
-(Nov 4th 2020) price bottomed at $0.01262.
EMA cross up B-
>66 days later
-(Jan 9th 2021) the EMA 22 went above the EMA 55.
Peak B-
>121 days later
-(10th May 2021) price peaked $0.9588.
> 187 days from bottom b to peak b
>If you bought the crash and sold peak you would have 7597.46% gain. (76x)
EMA cross down B-
>15 days later
-(25th May 2021) the EMA 22 closed below the EMA 55.
Bottom C-
>56 days later
-(July 20th 2021) 56 days later $0.1534 found a bottom (-84% from previous peak $0.01262)
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Time of Cycle B: 258 days
>236 days from Bottom B to Bottom C (entire Cycle B)
Time of Bottom B to Peak B: 187 days
>187 days Bottom A to Peak A (best buy to best sell)
Time of Peak B to Bottom C: 71 days
>71 days Peak B to Bottom C (best buy after peak the best sell)
Cycle B most profit:
> $0.01262 to $0.9588 75.97x (7597.46%)
Cycle A + B most profit:
> $0.0017 to $0.9588 564x (56400.00%)
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Cycle C
Bottom C-
-(July 20th 2021) 56 days later $0.1534 found a bottom (-84%)
EMA cross up B-
>56 days later
-(Aug 14th 2021) the EMA 22 went above the EMA 55.
Peak C-
>76 days later
-(28th Oct 2021) price peaked $3.457.
> 100 days from bottom c to peak c
>If you bought the crash and sold peak you would have 2271.44% gain. (22.7x)
EMA cross down C-
>37 days later
-(4th Dec 2021) the EMA 22 closed below the EMA 55.
Bottom D-
>100 days later
-(Mar 14th 2022) 100 days later $1.0343 found a bottom (-70%)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Time of Cycle C: 289 days
>237 days from Bottom C to Bottom D (entire Cycle C)
Time of Bottom C to Peak C: 100 days
>100 days Bottom C to Peak C (best buy to best sell)
Time of Peak C to Bottom D:
>137 days Peak C to Bottom D (best buy after peak the best sell)
Cycle C most profit:
> $0.1534 to $3.4859 22.7x (2172.29%)
Cycle A + B + C most profit:
> $0.0017 to $3.457 2033.5x (203300.52%)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bear Market
Bottom Bear-
-(Nov 22nd 2022) 359 days later $0.1627 found a bottom (-95.31%)
-Ended April 29th 2023
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Time of Cycle D: 532 days
>532 days from Bottom C to Bottom of Bear (Entire Bear Market)
Oct 19th 2023
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Guessing A2
Length of cycle. A 236 B 258 C 289 days
Avg sum/3 = 261 days (July 4th 2024)
B-A = 22
C-B = 31 ...31-22= +9 >> 289+9 = 298 days (August 11th 2024)
Guessing % gained
A $0.0017 to $0.0566 33.29x (3329.41%)
B $0.01262 to $0.9588 75.97x (7597.46%)
C $0.1534 to $3.4859 22.7x (2172.29%)
A+B+C / 3 = 4,366%.
B-A= 4268.05
A-C= 1157.12
4268.05 - 1157.12 = 3110.93%
instead got the ratio of A/B = 0.4382 x C = 951%
Percent gain
0.1707 up 951% = 0.1707 + (0.1707 x 9.5) = $1.7956
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cycle A2
Bottom A2-
(Oct 19th 2023) price bottomed $0.1707
EMA cross up A2-
>8 days later
(Oct 27th 2023) EMA 22 went above the EMA 55
Peak A2-
> 147 days later
-(March 22th 2024) price peaked @ $1.2295
> 155 days from bottom a2 to peak a2
>If you bought the crash and sold peak you would have 620.02% gain. (6.2x)
EMA cross down A2-
> 37 days later
-(April 28th 2024) the EMA 22 closed below the EMA 55.
Bottom B2-
>68 days later
-(July 5th 2024) price bottomed at 0.03788c. (-69.16% from previous peak $1.2295.)
>105 days from Peak A2 to Bottom B2.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Time of Cycle A2: 260 days
>260 days from Bottom A2 to Bottom B2 (entire Cycle A2)
Time of Bottom A2 to Peak A2: 155 days
>155 days Bottom A to Peak A (best buy to best sell)
Time of Peak A2 to Bottom B2: 105 days
>105 days Peak A2 to Bottom B2 (best buy after peak the best sell)
Cycle A2 most profit:
> $0.1707 to $1.2295 6.2x (620.02%)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Guessing B2
Length of cycle. A:236 B:258 C:289 days A2:262 days
Avg sum/4 = 262 days (March 23rd 2025)
B-A = 22
C-B = 31
A2-C = -27 ...31-22+27= +36 >> 269+36 = 298 days (April 30th 2025)
Guessing % gained
A $0.0017 to $0.0566 33.29x (3329.41%)
B $0.01262 to $0.9588 75.97x (7597.46%)
C $0.1534 to $3.4859 22.7x (2172.29%)
A2 $0.1707 to $1.2295 6.2x (620.02%)
A+B+C+A2 / 4 = 3,429.79%.
B-A = 4268.05%
A-C = 1157.12%
C-A2= 1552.27%
4268.05 - 1157.12 - 1552.27 = 1558.66%
instead got the ratio of A (3329.41%)/ B (7597.46%) = 0.4382 x C (2172.29%) = 951%
instead got the ratio of B (7597.46%)/ C (2172.29%) = 3.49744 x A2 (620.02%) = 2168.48%
made more sense to compare AB to A2B2 therefore went with this >
instead got the ratio of B (7597.46%)/ A (3329.41%) = 2.28192 x A2 (620.02%) = 1414.838%
alternative average
ratio AB + CA2 / 2 = 1559.74%
Percent gain
$0.3785 up 1414.838% = 0.3785 x (1+ (1414.838/100) ) =
$0.3785 up 1414.838% = 0.3785 x (1+ 14.1483) =
$0.3785 up 1414.838% = 0.3785 x (15.1483) =
$0.3785 up 1414.838% = 0.3785 x (15.1483) = $5.73366
B2 predicted price = $5.73366
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If I go by how much I was wrong for A² prediction, then adjust
$1.2295 actual A² / $1.7956 A² predicted = 0.68367
X adjusted B² / $5.7336 B² predicted = 0.68367
X adjusted B² = 0.68367*$5.7336 B² predicted
X adjusted B² = $3.82564
Adjusted prediction is $3.83 for B2
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1. Bottom: price hits lowest before crossover
2. EMA cross up: ema 22 goes above ema 55 on daily timeframe
3. Peak: price peaks in between the ema cross up and downthis period,
4. EMA cross down: ema 22 goes below ema 55 on daily timeframe
5. Bottom: price hits its lowest bottom after the cross
Cycle A
Bottom A-
(Mar 13th 2020) price bottomed $0.0017
EMA cross up A-
>68 days later
(May 20th 2020) EMA 22 went above the EMA 55
Peak A-
>105 days later
-(Sep 2nd 2020) price peaked @ $0.0566
>173 days bottom to peak
EMA cross down A-
> 46 days later
-(Oct 18th 2020) the EMA 22 closed below the EMA 55.
Bottom B-
>17 days later
-(Nov 4th 2020) price bottomed at 1.262c. (-77% from previous peak $0.0566.)
>63 days from Peak A to Bottom B.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Time of Cycle A: 236 days
>236 days from Bottom A to Bottom B (entire Cycle A)
Time of Bottom A to Peak A: 173 days
>173 days Bottom A to Peak A (best buy to best sell)
Time of Peak A to Bottom B: 63 days
>63 days Peak A to Bottom B (best buy after peak the best sell)
Cycle A most profit:
> $0.0017 to $0.0566 33.29x (3329.41%)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cycle B
Bottom B-
-(Nov 4th 2020) price bottomed at $0.01262.
EMA cross up B-
>66 days later
-(Jan 9th 2021) the EMA 22 went above the EMA 55.
Peak B-
>121 days later
-(10th May 2021) price peaked $0.9588.
> 187 days from bottom b to peak b
>If you bought the crash and sold peak you would have 7597.46% gain. (76x)
EMA cross down B-
>15 days later
-(25th May 2021) the EMA 22 closed below the EMA 55.
Bottom C-
>56 days later
-(July 20th 2021) 56 days later $0.1534 found a bottom (-84% from previous peak $0.01262)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Time of Cycle B: 258 days
>236 days from Bottom B to Bottom C (entire Cycle B)
Time of Bottom B to Peak B: 187 days
>187 days Bottom A to Peak A (best buy to best sell)
Time of Peak B to Bottom C: 71 days
>71 days Peak B to Bottom C (best buy after peak the best sell)
Cycle B most profit:
> $0.01262 to $0.9588 75.97x (7597.46%)
Cycle A + B most profit:
> $0.0017 to $0.9588 564x (56400.00%)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cycle C
Bottom C-
-(July 20th 2021) 56 days later $0.1534 found a bottom (-84%)
EMA cross up B-
>56 days later
-(Aug 14th 2021) the EMA 22 went above the EMA 55.
Peak C-
>76 days later
-(28th Oct 2021) price peaked $3.457.
> 100 days from bottom c to peak c
>If you bought the crash and sold peak you would have 2271.44% gain. (22.7x)
EMA cross down C-
>37 days later
-(4th Dec 2021) the EMA 22 closed below the EMA 55.
Bottom D-
>100 days later
-(Mar 14th 2022) 100 days later $1.0343 found a bottom (-70%)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Time of Cycle C: 289 days
>237 days from Bottom C to Bottom D (entire Cycle C)
Time of Bottom C to Peak C: 100 days
>100 days Bottom C to Peak C (best buy to best sell)
Time of Peak C to Bottom D:
>137 days Peak C to Bottom D (best buy after peak the best sell)
Cycle C most profit:
> $0.1534 to $3.4859 22.7x (2172.29%)
Cycle A + B + C most profit:
> $0.0017 to $3.457 2033.5x (203300.52%)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bear Market
Bottom Bear-
-(Nov 22nd 2022) 359 days later $0.1627 found a bottom (-95.31%)
-Ended April 29th 2023
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Time of Cycle D: 532 days
>532 days from Bottom C to Bottom of Bear (Entire Bear Market)
Oct 19th 2023
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Guessing A2
Length of cycle. A 236 B 258 C 289 days
Avg sum/3 = 261 days (July 4th 2024)
B-A = 22
C-B = 31 ...31-22= +9 >> 289+9 = 298 days (August 11th 2024)
Guessing % gained
A $0.0017 to $0.0566 33.29x (3329.41%)
B $0.01262 to $0.9588 75.97x (7597.46%)
C $0.1534 to $3.4859 22.7x (2172.29%)
A+B+C / 3 = 4,366%.
B-A= 4268.05
A-C= 1157.12
4268.05 - 1157.12 = 3110.93%
instead got the ratio of A/B = 0.4382 x C = 951%
Percent gain
0.1707 up 951% = 0.1707 + (0.1707 x 9.5) = $1.7956
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cycle A2
Bottom A2-
(Oct 19th 2023) price bottomed $0.1707
EMA cross up A2-
>8 days later
(Oct 27th 2023) EMA 22 went above the EMA 55
Peak A2-
> 147 days later
-(March 22th 2024) price peaked @ $1.2295
> 155 days from bottom a2 to peak a2
>If you bought the crash and sold peak you would have 620.02% gain. (6.2x)
EMA cross down A2-
> 37 days later
-(April 28th 2024) the EMA 22 closed below the EMA 55.
Bottom B2-
>68 days later
-(July 5th 2024) price bottomed at 0.03788c. (-69.16% from previous peak $1.2295.)
>105 days from Peak A2 to Bottom B2.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Time of Cycle A2: 260 days
>260 days from Bottom A2 to Bottom B2 (entire Cycle A2)
Time of Bottom A2 to Peak A2: 155 days
>155 days Bottom A to Peak A (best buy to best sell)
Time of Peak A2 to Bottom B2: 105 days
>105 days Peak A2 to Bottom B2 (best buy after peak the best sell)
Cycle A2 most profit:
> $0.1707 to $1.2295 6.2x (620.02%)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Guessing B2
Length of cycle. A:236 B:258 C:289 days A2:262 days
Avg sum/4 = 262 days (March 23rd 2025)
B-A = 22
C-B = 31
A2-C = -27 ...31-22+27= +36 >> 269+36 = 298 days (April 30th 2025)
Guessing % gained
A $0.0017 to $0.0566 33.29x (3329.41%)
B $0.01262 to $0.9588 75.97x (7597.46%)
C $0.1534 to $3.4859 22.7x (2172.29%)
A2 $0.1707 to $1.2295 6.2x (620.02%)
A+B+C+A2 / 4 = 3,429.79%.
B-A = 4268.05%
A-C = 1157.12%
C-A2= 1552.27%
4268.05 - 1157.12 - 1552.27 = 1558.66%
instead got the ratio of A (3329.41%)/ B (7597.46%) = 0.4382 x C (2172.29%) = 951%
instead got the ratio of B (7597.46%)/ C (2172.29%) = 3.49744 x A2 (620.02%) = 2168.48%
made more sense to compare AB to A2B2 therefore went with this >
instead got the ratio of B (7597.46%)/ A (3329.41%) = 2.28192 x A2 (620.02%) = 1414.838%
alternative average
ratio AB + CA2 / 2 = 1559.74%
Percent gain
$0.3785 up 1414.838% = 0.3785 x (1+ (1414.838/100) ) =
$0.3785 up 1414.838% = 0.3785 x (1+ 14.1483) =
$0.3785 up 1414.838% = 0.3785 x (15.1483) =
$0.3785 up 1414.838% = 0.3785 x (15.1483) = $5.73366
B2 predicted price = $5.73366
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If I go by how much I was wrong for A² prediction, then adjust
$1.2295 actual A² / $1.7956 A² predicted = 0.68367
X adjusted B² / $5.7336 B² predicted = 0.68367
X adjusted B² = 0.68367*$5.7336 B² predicted
X adjusted B² = $3.82564
Adjusted prediction is $3.83 for B2
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