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EUR/USD remains rooted in bearish trend
The EUR/USD's brighter start faded as the session wore on, with the US dollar rebounding across the board. Today’s macro calendar has been quite quiet apart from that bigger than expected rate cut by China’s central bank we saw overnight. In fact, there won’t be much in the way of any important scheduled data release until Thursday’s publication of the PMI numbers from the Eurozone and around the world. This should allow the focus to turn to the US presidential election.
In the eurozone, the only notable data release was German PPI, which came in at -1.4% YoY in September, below forecasts of -0.8%. The data points to weak demand and suggests that consumer inflation could fall further, thus allowing more rate cuts by the ECB. This is clearly another piece of data that is negative for the euro.
Later this week, the focus for euro traders is expected to focus on the global PMI data release scheduled for Thursday, October 24. The eurozone's manufacturing sector, which has been in contraction for two years, is of particular concern, and weak PMI figures could place further pressure on the euro.
Additionally, attention is turning toward the US presidential election, where Donald Trump is gaining ground in the polls. A potential Trump victory could further strengthen the US dollar, particularly due to his hawkish stance on tariffs targeting European and Mexican car imports.
Indeed, the Trump trade is already gaining momentum after the latest opinion polls and odds trackers point to an increasing likelihood of him winning the US presidential election. Trump’s protectionist policies should be bad news for the Eurozone as compared to a Harris win. So, if Trump’s odds of success increases over the next couple of weeks, then, assuming everything else being equal, we could see the EUR/USD weaken as a result.
From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD remains in a bearish trend, with short-term resistance at 1.0870 (200-day moving average) seems to be holding today. Further key resistance levels come in at 1.0900 and 1.0950. On the downside, the August low of 1.0777 is the next bearish target, followed by the 1.0700 handle.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
In the eurozone, the only notable data release was German PPI, which came in at -1.4% YoY in September, below forecasts of -0.8%. The data points to weak demand and suggests that consumer inflation could fall further, thus allowing more rate cuts by the ECB. This is clearly another piece of data that is negative for the euro.
Later this week, the focus for euro traders is expected to focus on the global PMI data release scheduled for Thursday, October 24. The eurozone's manufacturing sector, which has been in contraction for two years, is of particular concern, and weak PMI figures could place further pressure on the euro.
Additionally, attention is turning toward the US presidential election, where Donald Trump is gaining ground in the polls. A potential Trump victory could further strengthen the US dollar, particularly due to his hawkish stance on tariffs targeting European and Mexican car imports.
Indeed, the Trump trade is already gaining momentum after the latest opinion polls and odds trackers point to an increasing likelihood of him winning the US presidential election. Trump’s protectionist policies should be bad news for the Eurozone as compared to a Harris win. So, if Trump’s odds of success increases over the next couple of weeks, then, assuming everything else being equal, we could see the EUR/USD weaken as a result.
From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD remains in a bearish trend, with short-term resistance at 1.0870 (200-day moving average) seems to be holding today. Further key resistance levels come in at 1.0900 and 1.0950. On the downside, the August low of 1.0777 is the next bearish target, followed by the 1.0700 handle.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
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