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EUR/USD what to expect after testing 1.2250? more appreciation?
- As was mentioned in the previous two ideas this week, the approach of breaking above to 1.2250 targeting (1.2280-12300) was highly expected, not as a EUR real value, but as a fake out and a take profit move.
- In this idea I will mention what is likely to expect according to the recent price action, but let me first mention some new fundamentals to take into account.
FUNDAMENTAL KEY QUOTES
1- EU are plans to dole out to members 2 trillion euros in financing from its regular budget and pandemic stimulus funds (According to fiscal policy it is negative for the EUR).
2- Germany will allow its controversial law to lapse, a sign that the pandemic is releasing its grip.
3- Czech Republic recommended charging prime minister Andrej Babis after completing an investigation into whether he misused EU funds.
4- EU plans to life all quarantine requirements from July 1 for those who are fully vaccinated.
5- EU factories struggling to keep up with the economic recovery as order rise faster than production, setting the bloc up for a summer spike in inflation.
6- Calendar data was seen mixed but the main focus was on the EU CPI ( Surge of 2% ), signs for a high inflation.
What to expect after the rise to 1.2250 today? Is the target of 1.2300 still in the picture?
- As we see fundamentals don't totally point to EUR depreciation but considering the balance rule, still the economic outlook seems brighter in U.S.
Why the price is appreciating?
- Only due to U.S inflation problem, and it is also a game of taking profit from the investors side.
- In other words ( Expected fake out that is likely to end with a big fall to 1.2100 and maybe less ).
What to expect in the near term?
- The price MAY fall from 1.2250 and create a downtrend but I wouldn't say it is the best entry because according to fundamentals still the 1.2300 is still in the picture but breaking above 1.2300 is totally not considered.
- It is wise to hold short position from 1.2250 (lowest risk) giving a room to hold other positions near 1.2300.
-- THIS PICTURE REMAINS ONLY TILL ANY UPCOMING NEWS AND DATA, SO I WILL UPDATE ACCORDINGLY --
- In this idea I will mention what is likely to expect according to the recent price action, but let me first mention some new fundamentals to take into account.
FUNDAMENTAL KEY QUOTES
1- EU are plans to dole out to members 2 trillion euros in financing from its regular budget and pandemic stimulus funds (According to fiscal policy it is negative for the EUR).
2- Germany will allow its controversial law to lapse, a sign that the pandemic is releasing its grip.
3- Czech Republic recommended charging prime minister Andrej Babis after completing an investigation into whether he misused EU funds.
4- EU plans to life all quarantine requirements from July 1 for those who are fully vaccinated.
5- EU factories struggling to keep up with the economic recovery as order rise faster than production, setting the bloc up for a summer spike in inflation.
6- Calendar data was seen mixed but the main focus was on the EU CPI ( Surge of 2% ), signs for a high inflation.
What to expect after the rise to 1.2250 today? Is the target of 1.2300 still in the picture?
- As we see fundamentals don't totally point to EUR depreciation but considering the balance rule, still the economic outlook seems brighter in U.S.
Why the price is appreciating?
- Only due to U.S inflation problem, and it is also a game of taking profit from the investors side.
- In other words ( Expected fake out that is likely to end with a big fall to 1.2100 and maybe less ).
What to expect in the near term?
- The price MAY fall from 1.2250 and create a downtrend but I wouldn't say it is the best entry because according to fundamentals still the 1.2300 is still in the picture but breaking above 1.2300 is totally not considered.
- It is wise to hold short position from 1.2250 (lowest risk) giving a room to hold other positions near 1.2300.
-- THIS PICTURE REMAINS ONLY TILL ANY UPCOMING NEWS AND DATA, SO I WILL UPDATE ACCORDINGLY --
Aviso legal
As informações e publicações não devem ser e não constituem conselhos ou recomendações financeiras, de investimento, de negociação ou de qualquer outro tipo, fornecidas ou endossadas pela TradingView. Leia mais em Termos de uso.
Aviso legal
As informações e publicações não devem ser e não constituem conselhos ou recomendações financeiras, de investimento, de negociação ou de qualquer outro tipo, fornecidas ou endossadas pela TradingView. Leia mais em Termos de uso.