EURUSD bias to downside
The EURUSD trend is to the downside as it is obvious on wide timeframes (D, W, M)
So, my bias is selling high as following trends is my main strategy
The question is: how high can it go?
0.9900 is this week and past one high
0.9950 is 100% fib expansion of last week's down wave
1.0000 is the parity psychological level, OCT high, monthly ATR, R2 pivot level
My pick for entry will be 0.9950
Position size will be 1X (0.01 for each 1000$ in equity)
TP (0.9850) and SL (1.0050) is 1% of the equity
Fund:
German IFO data released today is better than expected which could give the pair the power needed to catch mentioned resistance level
We have the ECB rate decision next Thursday with an expectation of a 0.75 hike amid talks about other central banks starting easing on hikes as RBA did. This could cause some volatility in the pair but after the dust settles, it is supposed to continue its downtrend as Europe's energy crisis and geopolitical risks still have their weight on the shared currency.
So, my bias is selling high as following trends is my main strategy
The question is: how high can it go?
0.9900 is this week and past one high
0.9950 is 100% fib expansion of last week's down wave
1.0000 is the parity psychological level, OCT high, monthly ATR, R2 pivot level
My pick for entry will be 0.9950
Position size will be 1X (0.01 for each 1000$ in equity)
TP (0.9850) and SL (1.0050) is 1% of the equity
Fund:
German IFO data released today is better than expected which could give the pair the power needed to catch mentioned resistance level
We have the ECB rate decision next Thursday with an expectation of a 0.75 hike amid talks about other central banks starting easing on hikes as RBA did. This could cause some volatility in the pair but after the dust settles, it is supposed to continue its downtrend as Europe's energy crisis and geopolitical risks still have their weight on the shared currency.
Nota
Winter recession is coming and Europe's biggest economy will contract by 0.6% in the fourth quarter, the Ifo forecasted. The institute also notes that one in two companies is still expecting to increase prices in the coming three months. At the same time, 63.8% of businesses were complaining about supply bottlenecks, below 65.8% in September while export expectations from the industry improved slightly. Meanwhile, the gauge for the current situation fell to 94.1 from 94.5 ... DOVISHNota
FOREXLIVE: "The latest set of PMI numbers for October is only serving to reaffirm an intensifying downturn in the Eurozone as conditions continue to be largely hampered by high inflation and cost-of-living concerns. The prospect of a recession continues to draw closer and the only comfort is really that the weather has been relatively mild for the start of winter, at least for now." ..... DOVISHNota
FXSTREET/SOC.GEN: “The bad news is priced in and so the hurdle for a return towards the low nearer 0.9550 is high even with the German economy flirting with recession.” “The 0.9950 area is significant resistance for those targeting a test of parity.”
DOVISH
Trade ativo
Our sell triggered at 0.9950TP 0.9850
SL 1.0050
Nota
US Conference Board Consumer Confidence dropped from 107.8 to 102.5 in October, below the expectation of 105.6. The present situation index declined sharply from 150.2 to 138.9. The expectations index fell slightly from 79.5 to 78.1. Concerns about inflation picked up again.
Bad news is good news for risky assets as it pushes the brakes on FED rate hikes. That explains the turnaround in US500 upward and DXY downward, not helping the trade.
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Aviso legal
As informações e publicações não devem ser e não constituem conselhos ou recomendações financeiras, de investimento, de negociação ou de qualquer outro tipo, fornecidas ou endossadas pela TradingView. Leia mais em Termos de uso.