EUR/USD Heads into Swing Resistance

EUR/USD has edged higher in recent sessions, but the pair is now pressing into a key resistance zone. Let’s break down why this level matters and how traders can navigate the next move.

Testing the Waters: Is This a Breakout or a Range Play?

After a sharp decline in late 2024, EUR/USD started the year with a strong rebound from trend lows in January. Those lows were retested in early February and held firm, setting the stage for last week’s steady gains. Now, the pair is challenging the late-January swing highs—an area that could determine the next phase of price action.

This resistance zone is significant for three reasons. First, it aligns with the broader downtrend—despite the recovery, EUR/USD remains in a long-term bearish structure until it can break above a key swing high. A decisive move beyond this level could signal the start of a trend shift.

Second, it coincides with the volume-weighted average price (VWAP) anchored to the highs before the downtrend began. VWAP often acts as a battleground between short-term momentum and long-term weakness—whether buyers can push through or sellers reassert control will be telling.

The third, and perhaps most likely, scenario is that EUR/USD remains range-bound, with the early February bounce marking the lower boundary of consolidation. If resistance holds, traders may find opportunities to "play the range" by watching for lower timeframe rejection patterns within this key zone.

For now, RSI is climbing but remains below overbought territory, leaving room for further upside if momentum persists. However, should resistance hold firm, the broader range-bound structure could remain in play, keeping EUR/USD trapped between these key technical levels.

EUR/USD Daily Candle Chart

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results

EUR/USD Hourly Candle Chart

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results

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