General Market Outlook (Part 1) - May 10th, 2014
EUR/USD - Disclosure: Currently holding a short from 1.3980
- In my previous General Market Outlook, I mentioned that EUR/USD had an overall short bias in the short, mid and long term. I also mentioned it wasn't the time to enter yet. I personally waited until the mid to high 1.39XX's to start shorting.
- During Draghi's speech last week, price initially spiked up near the 1.40 level but stopped short of it by a few pips. Price then proceeded to drop about 150 pips within a few hours and after 2 days, dropped a total of 250 pips (of which, I caught about 200 so far).
- As it stands right now, price has broken the long term upward trend line, so it looks like my mid and long term short bias are starting to develop. However, I'm expecting (it may never come) price to retrace a little bit up to the mid to high 1.38XX region for a re-entry of the shorts I exited earlier.
GBP/USD - Disclosure: Currently holding a short from 1.6980
- I tried shorting this near the middle channel line but got stopped out for 40 pips at 1.6950 and got back into a short shortly after at 1.6980, which I'm still holding.
- Price overshot the middle channel line by about 80 pips but has since dropped about 150 pips from the high.
- We may see the low 1.68XX region provide some support for bulls next week. However, if price continues to move down towards the bottom channel line, then the target is around the low 1.67XX region.
AUD/USD
- This trade was already in play by the time I got back from my break last week. It didn't retrace either, so I didn't get a chance to enter this one.
- I don't chase/scalp trades but for those of you holding AUD/USD longs, it looks like price is heading for the mid 0.94XX region (90 pips away).
- If price ignores the mid 0.94XX region, the next targets are mid 0.95XX and mid 0.97XX region.
NZD/USD - Disclosure: Currently holding a short from 0.8776
- Based on my previous analysis, my first short on this pair filled at 0.8740 but since price overshot, I decided to enter a second short at 0.8776.
- Despite price overshooting the previous high, it didn't hit my stop loss of 0.8810, which is why I was comfortable entering a second short. Price has since dropped about 150 pips from the high and based on current price action, it looks like price is heading for the low 0.85XX region.
- However, before price gets there, it has to contend with the current level of confluence around the 0.8600 region.
- In my previous General Market Outlook, I mentioned that EUR/USD had an overall short bias in the short, mid and long term. I also mentioned it wasn't the time to enter yet. I personally waited until the mid to high 1.39XX's to start shorting.
- During Draghi's speech last week, price initially spiked up near the 1.40 level but stopped short of it by a few pips. Price then proceeded to drop about 150 pips within a few hours and after 2 days, dropped a total of 250 pips (of which, I caught about 200 so far).
- As it stands right now, price has broken the long term upward trend line, so it looks like my mid and long term short bias are starting to develop. However, I'm expecting (it may never come) price to retrace a little bit up to the mid to high 1.38XX region for a re-entry of the shorts I exited earlier.
GBP/USD - Disclosure: Currently holding a short from 1.6980
- I tried shorting this near the middle channel line but got stopped out for 40 pips at 1.6950 and got back into a short shortly after at 1.6980, which I'm still holding.
- Price overshot the middle channel line by about 80 pips but has since dropped about 150 pips from the high.
- We may see the low 1.68XX region provide some support for bulls next week. However, if price continues to move down towards the bottom channel line, then the target is around the low 1.67XX region.
AUD/USD
- This trade was already in play by the time I got back from my break last week. It didn't retrace either, so I didn't get a chance to enter this one.
- I don't chase/scalp trades but for those of you holding AUD/USD longs, it looks like price is heading for the mid 0.94XX region (90 pips away).
- If price ignores the mid 0.94XX region, the next targets are mid 0.95XX and mid 0.97XX region.
NZD/USD - Disclosure: Currently holding a short from 0.8776
- Based on my previous analysis, my first short on this pair filled at 0.8740 but since price overshot, I decided to enter a second short at 0.8776.
- Despite price overshooting the previous high, it didn't hit my stop loss of 0.8810, which is why I was comfortable entering a second short. Price has since dropped about 150 pips from the high and based on current price action, it looks like price is heading for the low 0.85XX region.
- However, before price gets there, it has to contend with the current level of confluence around the 0.8600 region.
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