EURUSD: without significant moves
The Fed's favorite inflation gauge, the PCE Price Index, reached 2.4% in January, which was in line with the forecast. It shows that the inflation in the US continues to slow down, which supported market optimism that the Fed might cut interest rates during the second half of this year. At the same time, core PCE Price Index was standing at level of 2.8% on a yearly basis, also in line with the market forecast. The US Durable goods Orders decreased in January above market expectations. While the indicator ended the month by -6.1% lower from the month before, the market was expecting to see the level of -4.5%. This was also significant drop from -0.3% posted previously. CB Consumer Confidence in February was standing at 106.7 a bit higher from market estimate of 115. The second estimate of the US GDP growth for the Q4 was corrected a bit to the down side, by reaching 3.2%, from forecasted 3.3%. The US Manufacturing PMI in February was standing at 47.8, a bit lower from anticipated 49.5. Michigan Consumer Sentiment final for February surprisingly dropped toward 76.9, from 79.6 expected by the market.
Germany GFK Consumer Confidence reached the level of -29 for March, which was in line with market expectations. The unemployment rate in Germany reached 5.9% in February, a bit higher from forecasted 5.8%. On the opposite side, inflation rate in Germany preliminary for February eased to 2.5% on a yearly basis, from 2.9% posted previously. On a monthly basis, inflation was 0.4%. Inflation rate for the Euro Zone reached 2.6% in February on a yearly basis, which represents further slowdown, from 2.8% posted previously. However, core inflation remains elevated, at a level of 3.1% on a yearly basis, which was higher from market forecast of 2.9%.
As both economies have their pros and cons, the market was unable to clearly decide on a trading side, during the previous week. The currency pair started the week around the level of 1.081, pushed the level to the upside toward the highest weekly at 1.086 in order to return it back toward the 1.079 on Thursday and end the week around 1.083. It was sort of a ping-pong game during the whole week. The RSI is modestly trying to cross the 50 line in order to continue its road toward the overbought market side. Moving averages of 50 and 200 days are continuing to move as two parallel lines without a sign of a potential cross in the near future period.
Two weeks ago the currency pair broke the level of 1.08 resistance, while during the previous week this level was continuously tested toward the downside. On the opposite side there was no market strength to push the price level to the higher grounds. As per current charts, it could be expected that the currency pair will start the week ahead by testing the 1.08 support line, with a low probability that this line could be clearly breached. On the opposite side, important fundamentals which are scheduled to be posted, like US non-farm payrolls, eventually unemployment rate might bring back some volatility and a potential move toward the 1.09 level. There is also an ECB meeting scheduled for the week ahead, however, the market is widely not expecting to see any move on the EU interest rate side.
Important news to watch during the week ahead are:
Euro: ECB Interest rate decision, ECB Press Conference after the ECB meeting, GDP Growth Rate, third estimate for Q4 for the Euro Zone.
USD: ISM Services PMI for February, Fed Chair Powell Testimony on March 6th, Non-farm payrolls for February, Unemployment Rate for February.
Germany GFK Consumer Confidence reached the level of -29 for March, which was in line with market expectations. The unemployment rate in Germany reached 5.9% in February, a bit higher from forecasted 5.8%. On the opposite side, inflation rate in Germany preliminary for February eased to 2.5% on a yearly basis, from 2.9% posted previously. On a monthly basis, inflation was 0.4%. Inflation rate for the Euro Zone reached 2.6% in February on a yearly basis, which represents further slowdown, from 2.8% posted previously. However, core inflation remains elevated, at a level of 3.1% on a yearly basis, which was higher from market forecast of 2.9%.
As both economies have their pros and cons, the market was unable to clearly decide on a trading side, during the previous week. The currency pair started the week around the level of 1.081, pushed the level to the upside toward the highest weekly at 1.086 in order to return it back toward the 1.079 on Thursday and end the week around 1.083. It was sort of a ping-pong game during the whole week. The RSI is modestly trying to cross the 50 line in order to continue its road toward the overbought market side. Moving averages of 50 and 200 days are continuing to move as two parallel lines without a sign of a potential cross in the near future period.
Two weeks ago the currency pair broke the level of 1.08 resistance, while during the previous week this level was continuously tested toward the downside. On the opposite side there was no market strength to push the price level to the higher grounds. As per current charts, it could be expected that the currency pair will start the week ahead by testing the 1.08 support line, with a low probability that this line could be clearly breached. On the opposite side, important fundamentals which are scheduled to be posted, like US non-farm payrolls, eventually unemployment rate might bring back some volatility and a potential move toward the 1.09 level. There is also an ECB meeting scheduled for the week ahead, however, the market is widely not expecting to see any move on the EU interest rate side.
Important news to watch during the week ahead are:
Euro: ECB Interest rate decision, ECB Press Conference after the ECB meeting, GDP Growth Rate, third estimate for Q4 for the Euro Zone.
USD: ISM Services PMI for February, Fed Chair Powell Testimony on March 6th, Non-farm payrolls for February, Unemployment Rate for February.
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