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EUR/USD how can U.S. unemployment data affect price direction?
Atualizado
In this post I will mention how the U.S. unemployment rate data can affect the price direction?
- The forecasted unemployment rate data is expected to show 5.7% drop from 5.9% previous, I expect the following possibilities,
1- unemployment rate less than 5.7% = ( THIS MEANS THE FED IS GETTING CLOSER TO MATCH THE GOAL OF EMPLOYMENT, TO BE FOLLOWED BY TAPER ANNOUNCEMENT IN NEXT FOMC MEETING, AND SO WILL BE ABLE TO CONTROL THE RUNNING HOT INFLATION, ALSO TAPERING IS USUALLY TO BE FOLLOWED BY A HAWKISH FED WHICH IS USD POSITIVE ) , to break below 1.1800 with maximum target of 1.1750.
2- unemployment rate more than 5.7 % = ( IT DEPENDS IF IT HAPPENS TO BE VERY DOWNBEAT DATA, WOULD NOT SUPPORT OR CONFIRM THE FED WILL GIVE ANY ANNOUNCEMENT ON TAPER IN NEXT FOMC MEETING, AND SO WOULD BE USD NEGATIVE ), price range would be 1.1800 - 1.1900.
3- unemployment rate = 5.7% = ( IT WOULD BE CONSIDERED AS A MIXED DATA ), price would hold the short term price range of 1.1860 - 1.1780.
SPOTLIGHT
- IT IS WISE TO COMBINE THE DATA OF THE NFP AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE TO PREDICT WHETHER IT IS MATCHING THE FED EMPLOYMENT GOAL OR NOT -
- MONETARY POLICY UPDATES AND SENTIMENT IS ON THE USD SIDE BECAUSE OF DOVISH, EXTENDED STIMULUS OF ECB, HAWKISH SHIFT TONE OF FED -
- SHORT TERM PRICE RANGE AHEAD OF DATA IS 1.1860 - 1.1780 -
- LONG TERM PRICE RANGE IS 1.1950 - 1.1750 -
- THE MAIN DRIVER OF THE CURRENCY PAIR DIRECTION IS THE EMPLOYMENT GOAL STATUS, FED MONETARY POLICY UPDATES -
- THIS OUTLOOK REMAINS ONLY TILL UPCOMING NEWS AND DATA THAT MAY CHANGE THE PRICE RANGE, SO I WILL UPDATE ACCORDINGLY -
- The forecasted unemployment rate data is expected to show 5.7% drop from 5.9% previous, I expect the following possibilities,
1- unemployment rate less than 5.7% = ( THIS MEANS THE FED IS GETTING CLOSER TO MATCH THE GOAL OF EMPLOYMENT, TO BE FOLLOWED BY TAPER ANNOUNCEMENT IN NEXT FOMC MEETING, AND SO WILL BE ABLE TO CONTROL THE RUNNING HOT INFLATION, ALSO TAPERING IS USUALLY TO BE FOLLOWED BY A HAWKISH FED WHICH IS USD POSITIVE ) , to break below 1.1800 with maximum target of 1.1750.
2- unemployment rate more than 5.7 % = ( IT DEPENDS IF IT HAPPENS TO BE VERY DOWNBEAT DATA, WOULD NOT SUPPORT OR CONFIRM THE FED WILL GIVE ANY ANNOUNCEMENT ON TAPER IN NEXT FOMC MEETING, AND SO WOULD BE USD NEGATIVE ), price range would be 1.1800 - 1.1900.
3- unemployment rate = 5.7% = ( IT WOULD BE CONSIDERED AS A MIXED DATA ), price would hold the short term price range of 1.1860 - 1.1780.
SPOTLIGHT
- IT IS WISE TO COMBINE THE DATA OF THE NFP AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE TO PREDICT WHETHER IT IS MATCHING THE FED EMPLOYMENT GOAL OR NOT -
- MONETARY POLICY UPDATES AND SENTIMENT IS ON THE USD SIDE BECAUSE OF DOVISH, EXTENDED STIMULUS OF ECB, HAWKISH SHIFT TONE OF FED -
- SHORT TERM PRICE RANGE AHEAD OF DATA IS 1.1860 - 1.1780 -
- LONG TERM PRICE RANGE IS 1.1950 - 1.1750 -
- THE MAIN DRIVER OF THE CURRENCY PAIR DIRECTION IS THE EMPLOYMENT GOAL STATUS, FED MONETARY POLICY UPDATES -
- THIS OUTLOOK REMAINS ONLY TILL UPCOMING NEWS AND DATA THAT MAY CHANGE THE PRICE RANGE, SO I WILL UPDATE ACCORDINGLY -
Nota
UPBEAT U.S. DATA, SHORT TERM PRICE RANGE 1.1860 - 1.1780 , IT IS WISE TO CONSIDER THAT WEAK REVERSALS UP TO 1.1830-1.1850 ZONE CAN TAKE PLACE AS THE IMMEDIATE REACTION ALREADY TESTED 1.1780, HOWEVER STILL THE MAIN TREND IS DOWNTREND. TRADERS SHALL TAKE ADVANTAGE OF ANY PULLBACK.Nota
TEXT ERROR, SHORT TERM PRICE RANGE 1.1860 - 1.1750 AND IF TO CONSIDER FAKEOUTS THEN MAXIMUM TO 1.1730 TILL FURTHER ANNOUNCEMENTS BY FED ABOUT TAPERING STATUS
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