EUR/USD potential long

hello everyone, just wanted to share my analysis of EU previous to the news releases. i have the pair at a solid s/r probably until the news comes out. after that i predict a strong jump off the support for a good long trade. how ever the strength of the downtrend leading up this area has scared me alittle along with the crossing of the 200SMA. If i enter this position i will be risking a smaller than usual % of my account. i also believe that after the news comes out the market will take itself very clear which direction it intends to go.