ETHUSD: Sub 1000 Psychological Resistance Area Higher Risk?

4 de jan. de 2018

ETHUSD update: 954 all time high reached as price reacts to the upper boundary of the 945 reversal zone. Price momentum is bullish and is likely to test 1000 but buying at current prices presents increased risk.

This price action is nothing new. When you have strong markets like we have seen in these coins, it is still better to lock SOME profits at highs, and look to buy nearer supports. The biggest problem that I see with new investors is they are controlled by greed. They want to sell at the exact top and feel as if they have lost if the market goes higher without them. This is a normal reaction but must be identified and eliminated because this same greed is what leads to turning a winning position into a losing one.

The 945 upper boundary of the reversal zone is a projected level that is measured from the 492 low. IF price fails within this zone, like it is now, that presents a situation that is similar to a double top but not as obvious. This zone, along with target extensions serve as better places to lock in profits, not establish new positions.

Why not lock in all profits and just buy back on the pullback? The reason is there is no way to be certain that price will retrace or how much. By locking in some profit, you reduce risk if price decides to fall apart, and by holding onto some of the position allows you to continue to participate in the market IF it continues higher without any significant retrace. This is how a swing trade evolves into a position trade. We can't control profits, we can control risk.

As far as where to buy now, the first level I am anticipating is the 835 minor support (.382 of recent bullish swing) which is also an old resistance/new support level (inversion). The second area is the 761 to 710 zone which is relative to the .618 of the recent bullish swing measured from the 640 low.

Buying at these levels would be for a swing trade and would have a target some where in the high 900s. The risk has to be determined at the time of the entry. And that will be based on what kind of price action unfolds IF the market chooses to retest one of these areas. I would like to see a reversal pattern such as a double bottom or failed low before I consider anything else.

What if price never pulls back? Then I miss the move. I do not care about how high or low markets go, I am only interested in opportunities that present a well defined risk, a signal that shows momentum is in my favor, and a target that is within reason and relatively attractive compared to the risk I have to take. It is possible price may hesitate to retrace and just continue higher to test the psychological 1K resistance, but the risk is unattractive at current levels.

In summary, the concept of selling while you can is nothing new to professionals who are aware of the limitations of greed. When markets push highs, that is an opportunity to sell while buyers are plentiful, while selling the precise top is irrelevant. Buying strong markets at a low point offers greater reward potential at a lower risk. Controlling risk is what leads to long term success in any market, not home runs. In a case like this market, waiting for a retrace to a relevant level is the best I can do, especially when price is showing some signs of selling off of a projected resistance area. All markets eventually retrace and if the market I am interested refuses to, then I will look elsewhere for a market that offers opportunities that make much more sense in terms of the risk I have to take.

Comments and questions welcome.