ES FUTURES (ESH2025) FOMC 1/29/2025 PLAYBOOK
📊 TRADE IDEAS: ES FUTURES (ESH2025) FOMC 1/29/2025 PLAYBOOK
🟢 SCENARIO 1 (BULLISH):
DIRECTION: LONG
STRUCTURE BIAS: Neutral with Bullish Opportunity
ENTRY LEVEL: 6060
STOP LEVEL: 6035
TARGET LEVEL: 6130
R/R RATIO: 2.8:1
EXECUTION STRATEGY:
- Enter long positions if initial FOMC reaction (2:00-2:30 PM) is bearish
- Position should be taken only after confirmation of support around 6060
- Size appropriately given FOMC volatility conditions
KEY POINTS:
- Looking for fill of Sunday gap at 6130 level
- Initial bearish reaction often reverses during Powell's speech (2:45-4:00 PM)
- Critical to wait for initial reaction before committing to position
🔴 SCENARIO 2 (BEARISH):
DIRECTION: SHORT
ENTRY LEVEL: 6120-6130
STOP LEVEL: 6150
TARGET LEVEL: 6020
R/R RATIO: 3.3:1
EXECUTION STRATEGY:
- Enter short positions if initial FOMC reaction spikes into gap area
- Establish position during 2:00-2:30 PM window before Powell speaks
- Use tight stops given potential for volatile reversals
KEY POINTS:
- Higher probability setup compared to long scenario
- Gap resistance zone likely to act as strong technical barrier
MARKET BIAS:
SHORT TERM (1-2 DAYS):
- Bearish bias into FOMC with expectation of failed rally into gap fill
- High volatility expected during 2:00-4:00 PM trading window
LONGER TERM (2-5 DAYS):
- Resolution of FOMC volatility likely to set directional tone for remainder of week
- Key resistance remains at 6130 gap level with support at 6035-6020 zone
- Monitor market reaction to Powell's commentary for sustained directional move
🟢 SCENARIO 1 (BULLISH):
DIRECTION: LONG
STRUCTURE BIAS: Neutral with Bullish Opportunity
ENTRY LEVEL: 6060
STOP LEVEL: 6035
TARGET LEVEL: 6130
R/R RATIO: 2.8:1
EXECUTION STRATEGY:
- Enter long positions if initial FOMC reaction (2:00-2:30 PM) is bearish
- Position should be taken only after confirmation of support around 6060
- Size appropriately given FOMC volatility conditions
KEY POINTS:
- Looking for fill of Sunday gap at 6130 level
- Initial bearish reaction often reverses during Powell's speech (2:45-4:00 PM)
- Critical to wait for initial reaction before committing to position
🔴 SCENARIO 2 (BEARISH):
DIRECTION: SHORT
ENTRY LEVEL: 6120-6130
STOP LEVEL: 6150
TARGET LEVEL: 6020
R/R RATIO: 3.3:1
EXECUTION STRATEGY:
- Enter short positions if initial FOMC reaction spikes into gap area
- Establish position during 2:00-2:30 PM window before Powell speaks
- Use tight stops given potential for volatile reversals
KEY POINTS:
- Higher probability setup compared to long scenario
- Gap resistance zone likely to act as strong technical barrier
MARKET BIAS:
SHORT TERM (1-2 DAYS):
- Bearish bias into FOMC with expectation of failed rally into gap fill
- High volatility expected during 2:00-4:00 PM trading window
LONGER TERM (2-5 DAYS):
- Resolution of FOMC volatility likely to set directional tone for remainder of week
- Key resistance remains at 6130 gap level with support at 6035-6020 zone
- Monitor market reaction to Powell's commentary for sustained directional move
Nota
We are seeing a pull back away from GAP pre-FOMC news. So likely it will run through that gap on the 2 PM News Trade ativo
FOMC News Event Triggered. Weekly Opening Gap in play: LONG. Nota
Looking for 6040 to hold and expansion into Opening Weekly GAP.Trade fechado: objetivo atingido
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