ES1: S&P 500 climbing the wall of worry?
If this idea plays out, we should not see a lower low forming on daily timeframe until it reaches another all time high. Keeping close eye on RSI. Minor degree wave 3 should print one of the highest prints ever. After that we should see more volatile ups and downs with bigger ranges and RSI slowly creating negative divergence. Market should see the primary degree wave 3 complete by mid next year to 5.2k - 5.4 k; followed by a larger wave 4 back to retest 4.8k high, that could last 6 months to a year. Wave 4 would be exciting the bears all over again; only to slap them down for one last time to create a top of tops to 6.5 - 7k level. The dance could go on till the end of 2026. After that, the mother of all crashes will come; as predicted by many of the bears today.
Alternatively, today was the top of a larger wave B and next week onward there would be relentless downturn that could take price below 3k by end of this year. One early indication will be today's gap fill and the 4220 area support. If the support becomes resistance then a bigger drop probability increases. If gap fill creates a bear trap and price gets a bounce from the support and moves above Friday close, then bear case loses power again. Either case, there is an entry opportunity in the next week or two with clear stop loss parameter.
Alternatively, today was the top of a larger wave B and next week onward there would be relentless downturn that could take price below 3k by end of this year. One early indication will be today's gap fill and the 4220 area support. If the support becomes resistance then a bigger drop probability increases. If gap fill creates a bear trap and price gets a bounce from the support and moves above Friday close, then bear case loses power again. Either case, there is an entry opportunity in the next week or two with clear stop loss parameter.
Aviso legal
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