SPX - Potential for a strong move down from here
Since we are not getting a rally as I expected (a bounce yes, but nothing impulsive today), another option to consider is a triangle for a B wave, which means a C wave down will begin in earnest tomorrow.
I think this is a strong possibility considering the massive amount of short covering today. Although the VIX is elevated, the Weekly bull divergence on it has not really followed through as much as it should.
I could be wrong but my guess is we have only seen a prelude with choppy consolidation for the last few days and soon the market will come down hard like the banks already did.
Good luck!
I think this is a strong possibility considering the massive amount of short covering today. Although the VIX is elevated, the Weekly bull divergence on it has not really followed through as much as it should.
I could be wrong but my guess is we have only seen a prelude with choppy consolidation for the last few days and soon the market will come down hard like the banks already did.
Good luck!
Nota
ending was nice and strong - convincing if it was a bull trap. Watch for news overnight......Nota
sell off overnight as suspected, but nothing strong just yet. if i'm right, the 830 numbers will drop it. if wrong, it will rally....Nota
ecb rate decision at 945 estNota
watching this channel for breakup/down Nota
the count looks wrong as of now unless E is here. Otherwise they are going to the 18ma daily/weekly area around 3950-3960 Nota
pattern may be complete with an E throw over, not sure. ON the above chart, we've hit the pitchfork fib line at about 3940 Nota
we reached both the daily 18 and weekly 18 around 3960 on spx - if there's is going to be a down move, it should be from this area. I can't tell yet if the downmove is invalid or it will take more time to start it. The triangle idea was invalid. Nota
4hr hidden bear divergence building, but it is meaningless at the moment. Nota
still thinking we have one more leg down for C and the B wave completed yesterday. It will be telling if the gains from yesterday are taken out today. With opex today it could be whippy, but for next week I think we go down into fomc and maybe slightly after. Good luck Nota
with rsi on the hourly already this low, a test of the highs or higher is probable before a fall. Nota
note that we stopped at exactly where the 18ma weekly is overnight (red line). Closing below it this week is important for bears. Nota
watching this structure Nota
we're losing all the daily ma's - any bounce to them is an objective short. 200ma is at 3936 on spx cash Nota
rsi does not look like it will crash from here - daily is still very low. I can see us move down quickly 100+ points by early next week and then bounce again. 
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