Hey everyone,
Still trying to hold true to my promises of providing my trading ideas/plans despite the fact that I don't really plan on swinging anything in terms of indices this week (I am potentially looking at BA but I posted that idea already).
For today/tomorrow, very interesting start. We have a bearish 99% target on the weekly and a bearish 99% on the daily on ES1!. I initially attempted a short, that I trailed because there was a ton of buying. That got stopped out in profit for a modest gain.
I am now re-short.
The 99% target on the daily is 3874.84 and that is my immediate futures target.
This also corresponds to a half gap-fill. I am not a gap chaser and never trade based on gaps, but for those of you who are and do, there is that.
That said, there is a TON of buying happening right now on ES1! as you can see in the buyer to seller volume indicator. And this could just be pumped really dramatically. Santa rally style you know? So shorting for intra-day plays may not be the best decision but again its very early to make judgements. We will need to see how things are looking tomorrow.
Overall outlook for SPY on the weekly:
I think I will reserve final declarations until I see SPY and DIA's 99% weekly target tomorrow, but this is what the probs say:
SPY: Inconclusive. The model was unable to identify identical weeks in SPY's history. Looking at the parameters individually, there was a propensity to lean to the bearish side, but not dramatically when manually calculated. When calculated through python, it was bullish with a preference for 392.
DIA: When SPY is inconclusive, I like to verify with DIA. DIA was actually bullish. Preference for upside on the weekly. Now, DIA is generally more bullish than SPY so its never OVERLY great to take DIA as identical to SPY, but it is persuasive. Immediate high prob target for DIA is 336.
Please note, and this is important, I am NOT swinging any of the indices for bullish targets this week. I am seeing a lot of bearishness in the chart. There is a really persuasive bearish chart pattern that is showing up that I have historically always shorted. Thus, despite the fact I think upside is likely this week, I will not be taking it because it seems super risky. I am limiting trades this week to day trades. Also its a shortened trading week with little volume so its just, its not great to swing.
I will be utilizing this time though to scale into a short longer term position. I am hopefully targeting 392 to start the short position, but am playing it by ear and gauging the PA as it comes.
Intra-day targets:
Are in the chart, but I can repeat here for clarity:
Bull:
BUll 1 and 2 already hit (you can see in the chart).
Bull 3: 3910.83
Bear:
1. 3875
2. 3858
3. 3841
I expect us to remain range bound for the day (between Bull #2 and Bear #2), but we will see what we get.
My immediate target is the 99% target though at 3874. Once we take that out, I will be focused more on SPY intra-day levels.
I will post anything interesting if I see it come up. Otherwise, this is the immediate plan.
Safe trades everyone and happy new year lead up :-)!
Still trying to hold true to my promises of providing my trading ideas/plans despite the fact that I don't really plan on swinging anything in terms of indices this week (I am potentially looking at BA but I posted that idea already).
For today/tomorrow, very interesting start. We have a bearish 99% target on the weekly and a bearish 99% on the daily on ES1!. I initially attempted a short, that I trailed because there was a ton of buying. That got stopped out in profit for a modest gain.
I am now re-short.
The 99% target on the daily is 3874.84 and that is my immediate futures target.
This also corresponds to a half gap-fill. I am not a gap chaser and never trade based on gaps, but for those of you who are and do, there is that.
That said, there is a TON of buying happening right now on ES1! as you can see in the buyer to seller volume indicator. And this could just be pumped really dramatically. Santa rally style you know? So shorting for intra-day plays may not be the best decision but again its very early to make judgements. We will need to see how things are looking tomorrow.
Overall outlook for SPY on the weekly:
I think I will reserve final declarations until I see SPY and DIA's 99% weekly target tomorrow, but this is what the probs say:
SPY: Inconclusive. The model was unable to identify identical weeks in SPY's history. Looking at the parameters individually, there was a propensity to lean to the bearish side, but not dramatically when manually calculated. When calculated through python, it was bullish with a preference for 392.
DIA: When SPY is inconclusive, I like to verify with DIA. DIA was actually bullish. Preference for upside on the weekly. Now, DIA is generally more bullish than SPY so its never OVERLY great to take DIA as identical to SPY, but it is persuasive. Immediate high prob target for DIA is 336.
Please note, and this is important, I am NOT swinging any of the indices for bullish targets this week. I am seeing a lot of bearishness in the chart. There is a really persuasive bearish chart pattern that is showing up that I have historically always shorted. Thus, despite the fact I think upside is likely this week, I will not be taking it because it seems super risky. I am limiting trades this week to day trades. Also its a shortened trading week with little volume so its just, its not great to swing.
I will be utilizing this time though to scale into a short longer term position. I am hopefully targeting 392 to start the short position, but am playing it by ear and gauging the PA as it comes.
Intra-day targets:
Are in the chart, but I can repeat here for clarity:
Bull:
BUll 1 and 2 already hit (you can see in the chart).
Bull 3: 3910.83
Bear:
1. 3875
2. 3858
3. 3841
I expect us to remain range bound for the day (between Bull #2 and Bear #2), but we will see what we get.
My immediate target is the 99% target though at 3874. Once we take that out, I will be focused more on SPY intra-day levels.
I will post anything interesting if I see it come up. Otherwise, this is the immediate plan.
Safe trades everyone and happy new year lead up :-)!
Comentário:
Set an SL on my short position to maintain profit, but leaving it lax to realize the full move.
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