7/14: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading Plan
Recap
This week was another successful one for classical technical analysis traders. The week's movements were driven by a simple, textbook ascending triangle structure, which I have been discussing since Friday. I took a long position from 4420, which is now up over 100 points. This entry point was chosen due to its support of the large triangle structure. The resistance was at 4480-90, and ES went parabolic on Wednesday post-CPI on the breakout of that structure. This strong run from 4420 has been characterized by rare price action, with ES not closing a single 4hr candle below its prior candle's low since Sunday overnight.
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Mostly up a bit
🌍 Europe: Up
🌎 US Index Futures: Up slightly
🛢 Crude Oil: Down slightly
💵 Dollar: Up slightly
🧐 Yields: Up
🔮 Crypto: Down
World Headline
China promises more stimulus and attempts to woo foreign investors.
Key Structures
4478 and 4493: This represents the major June/July resistance and is the resistance of the ascending triangle structure.
4456: This back-tests where we broke out late Tuesday.
4440: This is support of the purple ascending triangle.
The large rising uptrend channel in white: This connects the March lows and the May lows is the primary medium term channel.
Support Levels
The support levels for today are: 4540 (major), 4532, 4526-23 (major), 4510, 4497, 4493 (major), 4486, 4478 (major), 4461, 4456 (major), 4448, 4437-4442 (major), 4431, 4424, 4414 (major), 4402 (major), 4393, 4383 (major)
Resistance Levels
The resistance levels for today are: 4547 (major), 4559, 4571 (major), 4577-80 (major), 4595-4600 (major), 4613, 4620 (major), 4627, 4640-45 (major), 4655, 4680 (major)
Trading Plan
Today, I will likely not take any new entries unless we get a real sharp multi-level selloff to some buyable supports. The first support down from here is 4540. I'd prefer to see the 4526-23 level tested which has a marginally larger chance of holding for any bids. If we fail there, I'd definitely be interested in buying the triangle back-test which is currently the 4493 level.
Wrap Up
In summary, it's been an incredible leg up and I'll just be taking it light today and focused on protecting my profits. We are at risk now of a consolidation or corrective period. My loose lean is that ES could dip to 4523-26 lowest, perhaps consolidate more, then continue the leg up to 4559 then onto high 4570s ultimate target. If 4523 fails, we do the 4493 backtest.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
This week was another successful one for classical technical analysis traders. The week's movements were driven by a simple, textbook ascending triangle structure, which I have been discussing since Friday. I took a long position from 4420, which is now up over 100 points. This entry point was chosen due to its support of the large triangle structure. The resistance was at 4480-90, and ES went parabolic on Wednesday post-CPI on the breakout of that structure. This strong run from 4420 has been characterized by rare price action, with ES not closing a single 4hr candle below its prior candle's low since Sunday overnight.
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Mostly up a bit
🌍 Europe: Up
🌎 US Index Futures: Up slightly
🛢 Crude Oil: Down slightly
💵 Dollar: Up slightly
🧐 Yields: Up
🔮 Crypto: Down
World Headline
China promises more stimulus and attempts to woo foreign investors.
Key Structures
4478 and 4493: This represents the major June/July resistance and is the resistance of the ascending triangle structure.
4456: This back-tests where we broke out late Tuesday.
4440: This is support of the purple ascending triangle.
The large rising uptrend channel in white: This connects the March lows and the May lows is the primary medium term channel.
Support Levels
The support levels for today are: 4540 (major), 4532, 4526-23 (major), 4510, 4497, 4493 (major), 4486, 4478 (major), 4461, 4456 (major), 4448, 4437-4442 (major), 4431, 4424, 4414 (major), 4402 (major), 4393, 4383 (major)
Resistance Levels
The resistance levels for today are: 4547 (major), 4559, 4571 (major), 4577-80 (major), 4595-4600 (major), 4613, 4620 (major), 4627, 4640-45 (major), 4655, 4680 (major)
Trading Plan
Today, I will likely not take any new entries unless we get a real sharp multi-level selloff to some buyable supports. The first support down from here is 4540. I'd prefer to see the 4526-23 level tested which has a marginally larger chance of holding for any bids. If we fail there, I'd definitely be interested in buying the triangle back-test which is currently the 4493 level.
Wrap Up
In summary, it's been an incredible leg up and I'll just be taking it light today and focused on protecting my profits. We are at risk now of a consolidation or corrective period. My loose lean is that ES could dip to 4523-26 lowest, perhaps consolidate more, then continue the leg up to 4559 then onto high 4570s ultimate target. If 4523 fails, we do the 4493 backtest.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
