ES December short term bullish in range
ES trading in a range and difficult to call a definite direction this week. I think we may see short term bullish in the hourly to daily charts then a possible retest of the 200 week MA before a rally back towards year end.
ES December contract could be developing a large bear flag pattern but is well supported by 200 Week MA at 3615 area. So, what sometimes appears as a flag pattern can just as easily morph into a bottoming pattern. The Fib 1.272 of the run up from October 21 Open to October 28 close also lies in this area at 3614.
A daily close below last week's low of 3704.25 will most likely see a retest of the 200 Week MA 3615 area then a rebound.
A daily close above last weeks high of 3928 could take us to the 4000 - 4040 area and then to the 50 week MA area of 4180
The 4040 area is important as it is the R1 of the Monthly Pivot and also the Fib .382 retracement of the 52 week highest close on Monday 27th December 2021 at 4758.50 and the 52 week lowest close on Monday 10th October at 3597.50
It's further out and if we remain bullish and above 4040 the next area of resistance is likely around the 4180 area which is a confluence of the Fib 0.5 in the same range and R2 in the Monthly pivot and where the 50 Week MA currently lies
The Daily RSI and Money Flow indicators are slightly bullish at 49 and 60 respectively which, might indicate some short term upside in line with Fridays bullish candle. The weekly charts show a different picture with a bearish weekly candle and weaker RSI and Money Flow readings.
Finally, the US Presidential cycle is an important factor in US equity markets. Markets usually rise and not fall when measured from he October of Year 2 (Mid Term) to the October of year 4 (election time).
ES December contract could be developing a large bear flag pattern but is well supported by 200 Week MA at 3615 area. So, what sometimes appears as a flag pattern can just as easily morph into a bottoming pattern. The Fib 1.272 of the run up from October 21 Open to October 28 close also lies in this area at 3614.
A daily close below last week's low of 3704.25 will most likely see a retest of the 200 Week MA 3615 area then a rebound.
A daily close above last weeks high of 3928 could take us to the 4000 - 4040 area and then to the 50 week MA area of 4180
The 4040 area is important as it is the R1 of the Monthly Pivot and also the Fib .382 retracement of the 52 week highest close on Monday 27th December 2021 at 4758.50 and the 52 week lowest close on Monday 10th October at 3597.50
It's further out and if we remain bullish and above 4040 the next area of resistance is likely around the 4180 area which is a confluence of the Fib 0.5 in the same range and R2 in the Monthly pivot and where the 50 Week MA currently lies
The Daily RSI and Money Flow indicators are slightly bullish at 49 and 60 respectively which, might indicate some short term upside in line with Fridays bullish candle. The weekly charts show a different picture with a bearish weekly candle and weaker RSI and Money Flow readings.
Finally, the US Presidential cycle is an important factor in US equity markets. Markets usually rise and not fall when measured from he October of Year 2 (Mid Term) to the October of year 4 (election time).
The 4040 area proved to be an area of resistance. The Weekly Close last week being 4032. I see a decline from here to 3950 - 3935 area lowest 3910. See my new post today for further detail.