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DOW: Key Metrics Point to Another Sharp Sell-off Monday
Atualizado
There's no bones about it - the global markets are still looking ugly, and while people have been trying to "bottom fish" and "dip buy" about 15% ago in the markets, the reality is, the global economy is essentially in shambles and that's not sensationalism. The US jobless claims are expected to show 1.5-2 Million next week in the report, and Canada has already confirmed about 550,000 jobless claims last week alone.
Since we blew past the December 2018 support quite easily (which many thought would hold), we have to look to at-least the bottom of 2016 for any sufficient support. This would bring us to roughly 16,025 on the DOW.
Whether this would bring about an actual temporary bottom or not will depend on the escalation of the virus in the US, Europe and Canada. What we need for a temporary bottom in the markets is for cases to decline in pace, NOT necessarily that the virus is contained.
Being somewhat close already to the 2016 lows, and the voraciousness of the selling environment, and the world in basically total shut-down, its hard to imagine at this point this level holding logically; 2016 was also only a "slow-down", not a recession. It is more likely we will come to test part of the rebound from the financial crisis (2012/2013 levels) before May.
Wishing everyone safety and good health. Now is not the time to buy equities.
When the time comes and its time to buy equities, look for quality names that have strong balance sheets and value, rather than stocks that sell directly to consumers and were overvalued from stock buybacks (most of US tech). Look at companies such as Waste Companies (WCN / WM / RSG), quality pipeline companies (ENB / TRP) and so forth. Companies that sell directly to consumers like Apple will likely have multi-years of sideways movement with slight upside.
- zSplit
Most Likely Scenario
- Race towards 2016 bottom support
- Near that time the US will likely release a 3rd stimulus package
- Few days of relief rallying to follow (probably 5-10%)
- Test 2012/2013 levels afterwards
Since we blew past the December 2018 support quite easily (which many thought would hold), we have to look to at-least the bottom of 2016 for any sufficient support. This would bring us to roughly 16,025 on the DOW.
Whether this would bring about an actual temporary bottom or not will depend on the escalation of the virus in the US, Europe and Canada. What we need for a temporary bottom in the markets is for cases to decline in pace, NOT necessarily that the virus is contained.
Being somewhat close already to the 2016 lows, and the voraciousness of the selling environment, and the world in basically total shut-down, its hard to imagine at this point this level holding logically; 2016 was also only a "slow-down", not a recession. It is more likely we will come to test part of the rebound from the financial crisis (2012/2013 levels) before May.
Wishing everyone safety and good health. Now is not the time to buy equities.
When the time comes and its time to buy equities, look for quality names that have strong balance sheets and value, rather than stocks that sell directly to consumers and were overvalued from stock buybacks (most of US tech). Look at companies such as Waste Companies (WCN / WM / RSG), quality pipeline companies (ENB / TRP) and so forth. Companies that sell directly to consumers like Apple will likely have multi-years of sideways movement with slight upside.
- zSplit
Most Likely Scenario
- Race towards 2016 bottom support
- Near that time the US will likely release a 3rd stimulus package
- Few days of relief rallying to follow (probably 5-10%)
- Test 2012/2013 levels afterwards
Nota
Just as a heads up that if the US is able to pass stimulus tonight (remains unknown) we could get a short lived pop in the market. However, the rally will be sold. - zSplit.
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