UK GDP and other data, bank earnings, OPEC outlook

14 de jul. de 2020

As we noted in yesterday’s report, this week is going to be exceptionally eventful. Yesterday's events in the US stock market - a clear confirmation of this. And this is just the beginning. Tuesday should be another proof, because today fully starts the earnings season and many important macroeconomic statistics will be published.

As for the data, China has already reported international trade data (imports grew by 2.7% and exports by 0.5%), which once again indicates that the Chinese economy is feeling yourself relatively good. This cannot be said about Japan: industrial production in May collapsed by 26.3% compared with the same period last year.

Next, we are waiting for data on UK GDP and industrial production for May (do not flatter yourself with forecasts that expect growth rates: this growth relative to the previous month, and relative to May last year, it will most likely be a decrease of 15-20%).

Recall that our position on the pound is to look for points for its sales in the foreign exchange market. This can be done both against the dollar and against the euro.

The day will continue with data on consumer inflation in Germany and USA, as well as industrial production in the Eurozone.
In addition, OPEC is due to release its monthly oil market review on Tuesday. Considering that the OPEC + meeting will take place in the middle of the week, at which they will decide to extend the reduction by 9.7 million b / d further or not, this week will be difficult for the oil market. Our expectations are that they will not extend (this means that since August the supply in the oil market will grow by 2 million bpd), and the report will have concerns about the growth of oil demand, which together gives reason to recommend oil sells from current prices.

And finally, the earnings season. According to analysts, it will become the worst since the global financial crisis (and maybe even worse). Today, before the markets open, banks will report and it is very likely they will set the pace for this week and even the entire earnings season.