The Final Phase Of The Bull Market Begins (Fractal Update)
Atualizado
My previous posts on this subject were much longer, but I'll keep this short and sweet. You can check out my other posts (linked below) for more in-depth analysis and my overall perspective.
I actually DID NOT want to see the stock market continue up here. It's just further confirmation that we're still following this fractal from 1929. I drew the yellow speculative line a while ago, showing that if we continue up from here, we can indeed reach as high as 40-50,000, even by Fall 2020, when we could also hit the long term channel resistance (red). It's interesting that this may easily coincide with the U.S. Presidential election.
This, I believe, is a seller's rally. I expect the DJI to eventually AT LEAST test the long term trendline (purple) and the 200 Month Moving Average (light blue). A catastrophic financial collapse could result in the loss of the long term trendline and a decline just as severe as the Great Depression. The technical setup is there for this to happen, but the question is: What are the underlying similarities and the warning signs that have led to such similar market behavior? Feel free to discuss.
Here's a closer view and comparison. You can see certain features marked for structural comparison:
Anyway, this is not financial advice. As always, my posts are speculative and based purely upon my own opinions and observations.
-Victor Cobra
I actually DID NOT want to see the stock market continue up here. It's just further confirmation that we're still following this fractal from 1929. I drew the yellow speculative line a while ago, showing that if we continue up from here, we can indeed reach as high as 40-50,000, even by Fall 2020, when we could also hit the long term channel resistance (red). It's interesting that this may easily coincide with the U.S. Presidential election.
This, I believe, is a seller's rally. I expect the DJI to eventually AT LEAST test the long term trendline (purple) and the 200 Month Moving Average (light blue). A catastrophic financial collapse could result in the loss of the long term trendline and a decline just as severe as the Great Depression. The technical setup is there for this to happen, but the question is: What are the underlying similarities and the warning signs that have led to such similar market behavior? Feel free to discuss.
Here's a closer view and comparison. You can see certain features marked for structural comparison:
Anyway, this is not financial advice. As always, my posts are speculative and based purely upon my own opinions and observations.
-Victor Cobra
Nota
Looks like we may just continue up here until the November election. Get ready for some volatility! Nota
We do have a bearish divergence on the monthly oscillator, but it can be ignored for several months, since the stoch has only just reached the top. Things look very overheated but I do think we might see a big blow off soon.
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