DJI - World's End Scenario
Why are people still obsessed with 1929? Whether they are right or wrong that Bearish Divergence doesn't look good!
While you can easily argue the world is very different to 100 years ago the market fractals do present similar structure and we have slipped into similar macro environments both political and economic. DJI looks like it has topped so worth taking a look.
- Current Day based on Monthly Chart, 200 Monthly MA
- Crash time frame in 1929 to 1932 was about 3 years - Today I would estimate this as 10 year period based on the fractal.
Interesting outcomes from the experiment assuming the DJI has topped:
- DRAWDOWN: 1929-1932 drawdown was 90% setting market back 14 years. From Point A to C, this will take us to $3,500. That sets us back by 25 years (no clear correlation).
- FRACTAL: The fractal is close to the present day formation assuming the DJI has topped out (close correlation).
- MA: The MA is pacing at a relatively similar trajectory - from the touch in 2009 to today's position at $18,000. Coincidently $18,000 is the bottom of the March 2020 crash at point B. (Interesting coincidence)
- SUPPORT: The immediate crash period from point A to Point B would take place around September this year (2022) - this lines up with my crypto forecasts. (Interesting coincidence)
- BEARISH DIVERGANCE : The RSI structure is very similar on lead up and localised formation. In 2020 we had the covid pandemic which delivered the recent low point on the RSI but the 1929 has the same strucue, just a more stable price. Can we trust the 1929 data? (Interesting coincidence)
- TRADING: Whilst a crash of this magnitude (common in crypto) would require some form of major catalist resulting in horror for average Joe and destroy a generation of wealth, it offers amazing trading conditions both ong and short for swing traders on longer timeframes. There are about 6 swing long opportunities during the 10 year crash, each lasting over 1 year and offering 40-50% upside
... hmm, that bearish divergence don't look good... it might be time to look at shorts again?
Best, Hard Forky
While you can easily argue the world is very different to 100 years ago the market fractals do present similar structure and we have slipped into similar macro environments both political and economic. DJI looks like it has topped so worth taking a look.
- Current Day based on Monthly Chart, 200 Monthly MA
- Crash time frame in 1929 to 1932 was about 3 years - Today I would estimate this as 10 year period based on the fractal.
Interesting outcomes from the experiment assuming the DJI has topped:
- DRAWDOWN: 1929-1932 drawdown was 90% setting market back 14 years. From Point A to C, this will take us to $3,500. That sets us back by 25 years (no clear correlation).
- FRACTAL: The fractal is close to the present day formation assuming the DJI has topped out (close correlation).
- MA: The MA is pacing at a relatively similar trajectory - from the touch in 2009 to today's position at $18,000. Coincidently $18,000 is the bottom of the March 2020 crash at point B. (Interesting coincidence)
- SUPPORT: The immediate crash period from point A to Point B would take place around September this year (2022) - this lines up with my crypto forecasts. (Interesting coincidence)
- BEARISH DIVERGANCE : The RSI structure is very similar on lead up and localised formation. In 2020 we had the covid pandemic which delivered the recent low point on the RSI but the 1929 has the same strucue, just a more stable price. Can we trust the 1929 data? (Interesting coincidence)
- TRADING: Whilst a crash of this magnitude (common in crypto) would require some form of major catalist resulting in horror for average Joe and destroy a generation of wealth, it offers amazing trading conditions both ong and short for swing traders on longer timeframes. There are about 6 swing long opportunities during the 10 year crash, each lasting over 1 year and offering 40-50% upside
- Is it likely, of course not. It's only happened once in a century :)
Is it possible, well it has happened before :)
... hmm, that bearish divergence don't look good... it might be time to look at shorts again?
Best, Hard Forky
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Aviso legal
As informações e publicações não devem ser e não constituem conselhos ou recomendações financeiras, de investimento, de negociação ou de qualquer outro tipo, fornecidas ou endossadas pela TradingView. Leia mais em Termos de uso.