Top for homebuilders?

14 de jun. de 2023

I'm sure this is a fairly contrarian idea especially on the day the Fed will probably elect to not have a rate cut for the first time and over a year but isn't that how these markets work usually anyway ie natural gas plummeting after the pipeline from Russia to Europe was destroyed as everyone was piling in to anything natural gas related, so why not. Long-term shorting isn't really a trade for most people and this has implications to go all the way down in the 80 range over the next few years. Basically I'm calling the top and if I had a fundamental thesis behind any of this my first guess would be the supply of housing coming online with the largest population of any generation on its way out which is the baby boomers. Maybe some put options low risk if you can find some cheap out of the money leaps but derivative pricing has been ridiculous so make sure you understand the math