Black Swan - Delta Variant

23 de jun. de 2021

Idea for COVID-19:
- Delta variant now 20% of US cases says CDC, up from 3% 4 weeks ago.
- Technicals suggest new wave to begin.

Forecast: 54 Million+ by EOY.

bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-23/delta-variant-seen-in-a-fifth-of-u-s-covid-cases-cdc-says

New variant selection timeframe matched as forecasted previously:

GLHF
- DPT

29 de jun. de 2021

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"The resurgence in both hospitalisations and deaths is dominated by those that have received two doses of the vaccine, comprising around 60% and 70% of the wave respectively."

p.10, para 32.

gov.uk/government/publications/spi-m-o-summary-of-further-modelling-of-easing-restrictions-roadmap-step-2-31-march-2021

1 de jul. de 2021

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It does appear that markets are being set up for a big drop coinciding with a Delta variant news drop to cause maximum panic

15 de jul. de 2021

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Disbelief in Delta variant and COVID resurgence due to low deaths, but the death curve takes 2-3 weeks to follow the confirmed cases curve. Now it begins - COVID Wave 3.

19 de jul. de 2021

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How come UK opens lockdowns when Delta variant spiking, while they are 90%~ vaccinated?

I will tell you a secret:

I speculate that the effective treatment is albumin (a-la Spanish Flu). However, for treatment to be effective, they need convalescent blood plasma (recovered patients), which is why restrictions are being lifted so that more plasma may be harvested.

It is the worst imaginable time to open, so I imagine that the people at the top are scared.

2 de set. de 2021

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Confirmed cases are exceeding my expectations, but should reach a peak in acceleration in the fall and rise with slowing growth until the target is hit EOY.