COCOA shorts

My analysis favors cocoa shorts in the coming weeks/months for the following reasons:

• The price of cocoa futures have broken ATH in a parabolic fashion
  
• Price is approaching the 5 years R2
  
• Seasonality is bearish in december and after february
  
• Lower rates should favor stocks vs commodities
  
• All agricultural commodities have retraced quite a lot after reaching their all time highs in the past 2 years. Cocoa should follow the same