$BTC Short-term bearish (update: 01/06/2024)

6 de fev.

Main Scenario - Double three-ing
-Let's suppose 49-39k was an impulse.
-After a retracement(Blue B), a falling wedge was observed as the first wave(green), meaning there will be more.
-Despite a sharp drop(grey B), there was a strong bounce from 42k. The bounce had impulse characteristics. (Dark grey; Grey C)
-This opens up a possibility of a flat wave. (Grey ABC; purple w)
-Then, BTC failed to shape an impulse and formed a channel.(Purple x, left)
-Then, it broke above Grey C. (Purple y)
-So far, BTC is following the characteristics of Triple Three.
-If it advances above purple y without falling below purple x(left one) but fails to break above (blue B), it finishes Triple Three, which is also wave 2.
-What's left is a downward wave 3, the quickest and longest wave within an impulse.

Sub Scenario - Trianle-ing
-It is also possible that BTC is triangle-ing as a wave 4.
-If it exceeds 43.8k, then current upward wave from 39k can be an impulse.(Yellow, left)
-If it becomes an impulse, the next compelling scenario is a 5-3-5 advance, meaning it will have one more advance followed by a drop. (Orange)
-Next, don't forget, we had an impulse wave from 49k to 39k. (Red A)
-Soon the orange wave C finishes(Red B), a drop to 37k awaits. (Red C)

TLTR:
-Should BTC fail to exceed 43.8k, it opens up a possibility of a drop to at least 37k.
-If BTC breaks above 43.8k(Orange A), I expect a retracement to at least 42k, then a break above Orange A, and then a drop to at least 37k.