BTC Likely to Test June 2022 Lows Soon
Atualizado
Today saw volatile, whipsawing price action in both cryptos and equity indices. BTC was no exception. As discussed in an article on September 19, 2022 at the start of this week (see link in the Primary Chart above), the US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) has held their September 2022 meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday this week. This meeting concluded today with a presser at 2:00 p.m. EST in the US. The hawkish monetary policy that has been fostered by the FOMC has put pressure on risk assets for much of this year. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell clearly stated that monetary policy would continue to remain restrictive and tight for quite some time until inflation comes down toward its 2% target.
The Federal Reserve, along with other central banks around the globe, have been attempting to tackle sticky inflation. Inflation has been the number one problem in developed countries from a macroeconomic perspective, and it has been running at high levels not seen in decades. Though some argue that inflation may have peaked, and there are good arguments for this conclusion, it remains sticky and well above central banks' targets, which in the US is 2%.
The Primary Chart above links to other recent posts on BTC where key levels are discussed in more detail than in this post, especially the downtrend line and key Fibonacci levels.
After the FOMC presser, it appears that BTC is heading quickly to test June 2022 lows. BTC failed in its breakout attempts over the summer as to key levels. This is discussed in the prior posts linked in the Primary Chart above.
In the most recent post regarding levels to watch this week, .786 retracement of the summer rally was identified as a key one to watch. Price chopped around this level with two failed breakout attempts. These failed breakouts are similar to the failed breakouts as to other key Fibonacci levels as well discussed in the linked recent posts.
Supplementary Chart A: Failed Breakouts This Week over .786 Retracement Level
Given these failed breakouts, combined with the failure on September 13, 2022, at the major downtrend line resistance, BTC is likely headed to test June 2022 lows soon. First it must violate the lows from earlier this week at 18,271. A successful violation of this level will lead directly to June 2022 lows. After that, some of the Fibonacci Channel lines can be considered as subsequent targets.
Please also see the update by Tradersweekly posted in the link below, which covers volume and some additional resistance levels based on multi-year price peaks. This article is highly recommended for a complementary but slightly different perspective on BTCUSD.
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Please note that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for this week. Also note that countertrend trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders. Countertrend trades are lower probability trades as well.
This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success.
Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed.
DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
The Federal Reserve, along with other central banks around the globe, have been attempting to tackle sticky inflation. Inflation has been the number one problem in developed countries from a macroeconomic perspective, and it has been running at high levels not seen in decades. Though some argue that inflation may have peaked, and there are good arguments for this conclusion, it remains sticky and well above central banks' targets, which in the US is 2%.
The Primary Chart above links to other recent posts on BTC where key levels are discussed in more detail than in this post, especially the downtrend line and key Fibonacci levels.
After the FOMC presser, it appears that BTC is heading quickly to test June 2022 lows. BTC failed in its breakout attempts over the summer as to key levels. This is discussed in the prior posts linked in the Primary Chart above.
In the most recent post regarding levels to watch this week, .786 retracement of the summer rally was identified as a key one to watch. Price chopped around this level with two failed breakout attempts. These failed breakouts are similar to the failed breakouts as to other key Fibonacci levels as well discussed in the linked recent posts.
Supplementary Chart A: Failed Breakouts This Week over .786 Retracement Level
Given these failed breakouts, combined with the failure on September 13, 2022, at the major downtrend line resistance, BTC is likely headed to test June 2022 lows soon. First it must violate the lows from earlier this week at 18,271. A successful violation of this level will lead directly to June 2022 lows. After that, some of the Fibonacci Channel lines can be considered as subsequent targets.
Please also see the update by Tradersweekly posted in the link below, which covers volume and some additional resistance levels based on multi-year price peaks. This article is highly recommended for a complementary but slightly different perspective on BTCUSD.
________________________________________
Please note that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for this week. Also note that countertrend trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders. Countertrend trades are lower probability trades as well.
This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success.
Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed.
DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
Nota
BTC continues to approach the down trendline that has contained price for nearly 11 months since the all-time high. Because the downward trendline has a negative slope, its implied resistance falls with each passing day. So while BTC has traded largely sideways for the past two weeks, the downward trendline has gotten lower and lower, and BTC has moved closer and closer to it. This will be important to watch. Every other time BTC has met this line over the past 11 months, it has eventually been rejected back below it. Will this time be different?
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