Bitcoin Daily Update (day 218)

I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.

My most recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison led to the following predictions: 1 day - 14 days = < $5,750 | bottom prediction: $2,860 by 10/30
Previous analysis / position: “If the green trendline breaks down, as well as $6,400 support, then it would be time to get positioned. If we rally toward major resistance while being overbought then that would provide an even better opportunity.” / Short BTC:USD from $6,474 and short ETH:USD from $225.20.
Patterns: Descending triangle
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,573 | R: $6,614
BTCUSDSHORTS: Pulling back and testing prior resistance for support
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.0295%
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): Trying to breakthough, forming doji right on them
50 & 128 MA’s: 50 is acting as resistance | 128: -2.88% | Finding resistance at 128 MA on 12h chart.
Volume: Getting a nice dip in volume as consolidation tightens
FIB’s: 0.382: $6,933 | 0.5: $6,776 | 0.618: $6,619
Candlestick analysis: Daily and 12h dojis.
Ichimoku Cloud: Top of 4h cloud at $6,609 | 1h flipped bullish
TD’ Sequential: Daily R5 | 12h G3 | 4h G2 after 2 candle correction |
Visible Range: Remain in highest liquidity zone above point of control
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h: +0.28% | 24h: -0.27% | 1w: -0.6% | 2w: -1.99% | 1m: -10.63%
Bollinger Bands: Finding support at MA | Tightest daily bands have been since 2016
Trendline: Holding up as resistance
Daily Trend: Chop
Fractals: Down: $6,318 | Up: $6,785
On Balance Volume: Has broken down it’s triangle
ADX: -DI & +DI converging as ADX is at support
Chaikin Money Flow: Pulling back from 0.2 on daily
RSI (30 setting): 1d: 48 | 1w: 51
Stoch: Bullish weekly and bearish daily

Summary: These next 1-5 days should define the next 1-12 months. Support continues to move up as we test the top of the descending triangle. The market is primed for a fakeout and I’ve been saying that for weeks. There is so much bullish sentiment that a breakthrough of $6,800 would cause FOMO buyers to jump in with full force. If the supply overwhelms them then it would cause for a sharp reversal.

That is why I am waiting for a breakthrough of the trendline, a higher high on the weekly and a close above the daily cloud before I start looking for longs. Until then I will continue to look for shorting opportunities.

Stop losses have been set at $6,651 and $225.2 on my BTC’ and ETH’ shorts. I will be looking to add if we breakdown $6,475.